Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 140453
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1153 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances return tonight-tomorrow morning across far
  southern Minnesota and western Wisconsin.

- Cooling down into the weekend, with below normal highs in the
  30s Sunday and Monday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 239 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

Widespread mid to high level clouds blanket Minnesota and western
Wisconsin early this afternoon. Temperatures range from the mid 50s
across central Minnesota to the mid to upper 60s along I-90. Light
northeast winds and increasing cloud cover should work to cap
heating, however we will keep an eye on the obs as 2 PM temperatures
in the low to mid 60s are a few degrees from record values at MSP
and EAU. Fire weather concerns have largely been kept in check
today, once again due to the light winds. Nonetheless, RH values in
the mid teens to low 20s percent will promote at least a marginal
fire weather risk into the evening.

The next weather system of interest is taking shape east of the
Rockies, as SPC mesoanalysis depicts lee cyclogenesis underway in
western Oklahoma. The surface cyclone is progged to advance
northeast through the Great Plains and into the Midwest by way of
the southern jet stream. We`ve noted significant shifts in the track
of the surface low over the past several days, with both dry and wet
solutions in play at one time. A more consistent southward trend has
continued from yesterday into today, such that PoPs have once again
decreased for most of central Minnesota and western Wisconsin. Rain
is forecast to move into southern Minnesota after midnight, with the
highest PoPs (60-80%) along and near I-90 beginning around daybreak
and continuing through mid-morning. Dry, northeast flow north of the
precipitation axis will limit rain chances over much of central
Minnesota and western Wisconsin. We`ve collaborated with neighboring
offices to drop PoPs to slight chances (20%) or lower along and
north of a line from Mankato to Eau Claire. As far as rainfall
expectations, HREF ensemble probability tools show a 40-60% chance
of exceeding 0.25" for communities along I-90. For reference, these
same locations have a 60-70% chances of observing less than 0.5" of
rain. An isolated rumble of thunder or two will be possible.

Winds will kick northwesterly behind the storm system, with a
reinforcing shot of cold air set to advect southeast out of Canada
this weekend. Highs in the upper 40s/low 50s Friday and Saturday
will give way to below normal values in the 30s Sunday and Monday.
Breezy northwest flow will be the theme over the course of several
days, however we`ll keep an eye on Saturday for gusts near advisory
criteria (upwards of 40 mph). The increasing gusts and reinforcing
shot of cold air will occur in response to the passage of a ~990s mb
low passing out of southern Canada into the Great Lakes
Saturday/Sunday. The track of this clipper is still somewhat in
flux, however recent ensemble trends have leaned towards a northern
solution, such that most if not all of south central Minnesota and
western Wisconsin will remain dry. The extended forecast features
some variability, however a slight upward trend back into the
40s/50s appears increasingly likely by the middle to end of next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Wed Mar 13 2024

VFR conditions throughout. Rain chances continue to be highest
south of the TAF sites, so have no mention in the TAFs. Winds
will be northeast, with a few gusts near 20 kts in the
afternoon, and then decreasing in the evening. Expect some
low/mid clouds, but bases should be above 4000 ft.

KMSP...VFR conditions throughout. The rain chances at KMSP are
near zero, so did not include any mention in the TAFs. Winds
will be northeast, with gusts near 20 kts during the day.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
FRI...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G20kts.
SAT...VFR. Wind NW 15-25G30-35kts.
SUN...VFR. Wind NW 10-15G25-30kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Strus
AVIATION...JRB


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