Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 290400

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
1100 PM CDT TUE JUN 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Pleasant weather continues through tomorrow.  A slight chance of
precipitation is in the forecast for tomorrow afternoon in
southwestern MN, but generally expecting the precipitation to hold
off until Wednesday Night/Thursday.

This afternoon,surface high working across the state has allowed
winds to become calm and variable.  Negative Cumulus rule nailed the
expansion of cumulus field across western WI and eastern MN today.
Subsidence working in from the west will quickly erode the clouds
this afternoon and evening.  Tonight, clearing skies and dew points
in the low 50s will allow temperatures fall into the 50s across the
forecast area, with possibly a few spots hitting the 40s in
northwestern WI.

Wednesday, the high will work to the east, but we`ll continue to see
the dry air mass in place as moisture will be on the rise to our
southwest.  Trimmed pops to the extreme southwestern portion of
Minnesota for during the day as the guidance is in good agreement of
a dry forecast tomorrow.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

The main forecast concerns for the longer term are timing of the
cold front Wednesday night and Thursday and then the gradually
warming trend into the weekend.

The latest deterministic models are indicating a slower overall
movement of the cold front associated with the upper trough for
thursday. This is closer to the 09z and 15z sref solutions as
well. This would leave much of Wednesday night on the dry
side...especially to the east with the retreating high over the
Great Lakes still influencing the weather. Some threat of
isolated thunder to the southwest near the fringe of the northwest
flow/baroclinic zone over part of South Dakota into
Nebraska/western Iowa. We will leave some low pops for this
threat for now. Otherwise...increasing pops into Thursday with
the front moving through. The namwrf wasnt too impressive through
Wednesday night with overall development along the front...but
the GFS and ECMWF did increase instability ahead of the front
into thursday afternoon. It still does look like the eastern cwa
has the highest chance for thunder through thursday.

Cooler and drier high pressure drops over the area once again
through the remainder of the week. Flow aloft becomes a bit more
zonal into the weekend over the northern conus and should allow warmer
air to return to the area. The threat of thunder will gradually
increase as well...mainly on the northwest periphery of the cwa
into the weekend...ahead of the next cold front. The southeast
area should remain rain free until at least next Monday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1100 PM CDT Tue Jun 28 2016

Light and variable winds are expected tonight. Given the light
winds, a few spots could end up with patchy fog just before
sunrise, but in general VFR should be prevailing.


Light and variable winds are expected through tomorrow morning.
Patchy low lying fog is possible in and around the metro, but it
is unlikely at the airport.

Wed Night...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA late. Southwest wind 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Scattered SHRA/TSRA early. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kts.
Fri...VFR. Northeast wind 5 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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