Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 010904
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
304 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS IN IOWA DIGGING TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN MS VALLEY REGION. THIS FEATURE WILL PIVOT ACROSS THE
NATIONS MIDSECTION TODAY...AND BRING PROLONGED ACCUMULATING SNOW
REGIONALLY. PER HIRES MODELS...AS THE TROUGH NEARS...AND ASSOCIATED
FORCING LIFTS A TAD FARTHER NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL MN...ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL ALSO EXPAND SLIGHTLY NORTH. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE INFUSION OF DRY NORTHEASTERLY LLVL AIR WILL HINDER
NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW TO SOME EXTENT. EXPECT
THE DELINEATION BETWEEN SNOW AND NO-SNOW TO GENERALLY BE A WILLMAR
TO TWIN CITIES TO CADOTT WISCONSIN LINE. ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD RANGE
FROM AROUND ONE HALF INCH ALONG THE NORTHERN END TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
INCHES IN THE ADVISORY AREA OF SOUTH CENTRAL MN WHICH INCLUDES
INTERSTATE 90. WINDS WILL BE BRISK AS WELL...SO AREAS THAT RECEIVE
NEW SNOW CAN EXPECT SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING TO OCCUR TODAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY TODAY...WITH HIGHS RANGING
FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN WEST CENTRAL MN...TO BETWEEN 10
AND 15 ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL
WI.

CLEARING SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHTENING WINDS WILL LEAD TO SUB-ZERO
LOWS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MN WITH THE FRESH SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CST SUN FEB 1 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A MAINLY DRY FORECAST IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD
BASED ON WNW/NW FLOW AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BLW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. PLUS MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES/FORCING
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE REGION THIS COMING WEEK.

THE COLD PERIOD FOR NEXT WEEK REMAINS ON TRACK...BUT NOT
ABNORMALLY COLD FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. LOWS ONCE AGAIN WILL FALL
BELOW ZERO...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. NEXT WEEKEND
PRECIPITATION CHC/S REMAIN QUESTIONABLE BASED ON LONGER TERM
MODELS INCREASING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A MORE WESTERLY FLOW
AND PACIFIC MOISTURE ADVECTING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
PLAINS. SFC ANALYSIS IS ALSO NOT FAVORABLE FOR ANY SUBSTANTIAL
PRECIPITATION...WITH THE SFC LOW/FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN
MN. ONE WEATHER ITEM THAT SEEMS MORE LIKELY IS WARMER TEMPS...ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING A MORE PACIFIC AIR MASS...VS CANADIAN OR MODIFIED
ARCTIC.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

NO REALLY BIG CHANGE FOR THE 06Z TAF FROM THE OOZ TAF. IT DOES
LOOK THE SNOW MAY CREEP A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT...SO THERE COULD BE A BRIEF WINDOW OF IFR VISIBILITY AND A
DUSTING TO 1/2" SNOW AT KMSP AND KEAU NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE.
KSTC/KRNH/KAXN...ARE STILL TOO FAR NORTH FOR A SNOW CONCERN. WE
ALSO SLOWED THE SNOW TIMING A BIT WITH THIS TAF.

KMSP...

WE DECIDED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR A PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY AND LIGHT SNOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER SUNRISE AND PUSH THE
SNOW TIMING BACK A BIT. WE REALLY DON`T THINK THE AIRPORT WILL GET
MUCH MORE THAN 1/2"...BUT THE VIS WOULD STILL LIKELY DROP TO NEAR
OR BELOW 2 MILES FOR A TIME IF WE END UP WITH 0.25-0.5" SNOWFALL
AT KMSP.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
MON...VFR. WIND SW 5-10KT.
TUE...CHC MVFR/-SN. WIND W 5 KT.
WED...VFR. WIND NW 10-15 KT.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ082>085-
     091>093.

WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...JLT
AVIATION...CLF



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