Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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000
FXUS63 KMPX 310927
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
427 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS IT SHIFTS EASTWARD.
500MB HEIGHT RISES WILL OVERSPREAD WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS
MORNING...AND THE ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW CLOUDS
ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN TO DISSIPATE THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

AS THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS MANITOBA
MIGRATES SOUTHEAST OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST THE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE. WITH THE SEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IN
PLACE...FORECAST HIGHS FOR TODAY WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S
ACROSS THE REGION. TONIGHT LOW TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE TEENS ACROSS
WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH THE RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE ST CROIX
RIVER VALLEY. MEANWHILE LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL KEEP OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE 20S ACROSS MOST OF MINNESOTA. THERE IS NO CHANCE FOR
PRECIP IN THE NEAR TERM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 AM CDT FRI OCT 31 2014

BY SUNDAY MORNING THERE ARE TWO WELL-DEFINED PV BOOTS
TRANSVERSING THE CONUS WITH MN/WI RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE. EVENTUALLY
THE SYSTEM OFF TO OUT WEST ON SUNDAY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND INTO NORTHWEST MN AND SOUTHWEST ONTARIO MONDAY MORNING.
THAT PUTS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR DRY SLOT ON MONDAY. THE RIDGING
THAT MOVES IN ON SUNDAY QUICKLY DEPARTS ON MONDAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SLIDES EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE PATTERN THEN QUICKLY EVOLVES INTO A SPLIT
FLOW PATTER. ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
EJECT OUT OF THE MEAN TROUGH AND INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. A SFC FRONT/TROUGH WILL LINK THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS.
THE MAIN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INDICATED FROM  THE GFS/ECMWF WITH
THE BOUNDARY REMAINS SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WE STILL BRING
CHANCE POPS AND LIGHT QPF INTO SOUTHERN MN AND WEST CENTRAL WI.
THERE IS GOOD MOISTURE ADVECTION AT850 MB MOISTURE ALONG AND AHEAD
OF THE FRONT THOUGH...BROUGHT IN BY A 40+ KT LOW LEVEL JET. FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES QUICK AND MORE
ZONAL. GFS/EC TRENDING TOWARD A DRY FORECAST...WITH TEMPS AROUND
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1051 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

BRISK NW WINDS OF 15-25 KNOTS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE SLOWLY WANING TO 10-15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND THEN TO LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
CLEARING HAS PUSHED THROUGH ALL OF THE TAF SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KEAU...BUT THE BACK EDGE OF THE VFR CLOUDS WILL BE
THROUGH THIS SITE BY 06Z. HOWEVER...MORE VFR CLOUDINESS
(BKN035-045) OVER NORTHEAST MN WILL SLIDE SSE OVERNIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS IS REINFORCED BY THE NAM CU RULE WHICH IS QUITE
NEGATIVE FOR WESTERN WI FRIDAY MORNING. HENCE...KRNH AND KEAU WILL
LIKELY SEE BKN035-045 DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

KMSP...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SCT-BKN045 PASSING THROUGH DURING
THE MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS TO 25 KNOTS THROUGH 09Z THEN 12-14
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING WITH LESS THAN 10 KNOTS FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
SAT...VFR. WINDS SE 10-15 KTS.
SUN...VFR. WINDS SSE 14-18 KTS.
MON...VFR. CHC MVFR CIGS/SHRA. WINDS SW 6-10 KTS.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRB
LONG TERM...CLF
AVIATION...RAH







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