Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN

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FXUS63 KMPX 261030

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
530 AM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.UPDATE...for 12z aviation discussion below


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A benign short term period is expected, as temperatures trend back
toward late June normals in the wake of Saturday`s frontal passage.
That being said, temperatures will still be above normal today given
the sunny skies and breezy westerly flow which is favorable for
warming. Temperatures will warm into the 80`s (mixing to 775mb),
although it will be noticeably less humid thanks to dewpoints around
20 degrees lower than Saturday`s values. Models do not quite seem to
be capturing the drying sufficiently, so have tweaked readings lower
than numerical guidance indicates for this afternoon. Think upper
40s to lower 50s seem reasonable given upstream trends, which will
translate to afternoon minimum relative humidity values in the 25 to
35 percent range.

Tonight expect to see increasing cloud cover approaching from the
north with continued westerly (lighter) winds yielding mild lows in
the mid 50s to lower 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Persistent northwest upper flow will bring quiescent conditions
to the area through most of the week. The only decent chance of
precipitation looks to occur during the late Wednesday through
Thursday time frame when a decent shortwave trough is progged to
drop through in the northwest flow and push a cold frontal
boundary through the area. The model guidance is in good agreement
on the large scale flow pattern through the week, and the GFS,
ECMWF, and Canadian are actually even within 6 hours or so with
the shortwave/frontal timing on Thursday. So, confidence in the
forecast is fairly high at this point, allow PoPs to be limited
and not make an appearance until late Wednesday night and
Thursday. Included some chance PoPs across the west on Saturday,
but that is in part due to holding onto some of the previous
solutions, which were a bit faster in bringing return flow back
into the region. The latest guidance has slowed things down, so
it`s possible subsequent forecasts will be able to keep things dry
after Thursday until at least Sunday.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 532 AM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

High confidence in VFR conditions through the period with mostly
clear skies. West winds will increase today with sustained 15-23 knots
with gusts up to 35 knots. Speeds decrease below 10 knots around
00z Mon.

VFR through Monday. Sustained winds increase to around 17 knots by
16z with gusts up to 30 knots.

Tue...VFR. North wind 5 to 10 kts becoming west.
Wed...VFR. Southwest wind 5 kts.
Thu...VFR. Isolated SHRA/TSRA. Northwest wind 5 to 10 kts.


.MPX Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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