Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
Issued by NWS Twin Cities, MN
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066 FXUS63 KMPX 140920 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 420 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Upper level smoke lingers through Wednesday. - Best chance for widespread showers on Wednesday, especially during the evening to overnight. Low severe weather threat. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 419 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 Overnight satellite imagery shows a picture of what is essentially a completely clear state of Minnesota aside from some upper level clouds moving over the far north along the Canadian border, with invisible to satellite but still present haze from wildfire smoke also lingering this morning. Ground level smoke has all but eroded throughout the area however the upper level smoke will persist until we see clouds building and precipitation falling by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Temperatures today will once again reach the low 70s under mostly clear skies with winds generally under 10mph, making for another gorgeous late Spring day to enjoy. Cloud cover will increase ahead of an approaching system looking to bring precipitation on Wednesday, with the setup including zonal upper level flow and a weak trough alongside a weak low pressure system. The warm front with the surface system will remain south of the area leaving us within the precipitation shield to the north of the front, also keeping us out of the running for any legitimate chances for severe weather. There is a very small amount of instability which could result in some thunder by the evening and overnight, however with limited shear and weak forcing that should be all it is. Further chances for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the week and weekend into next week with a series of weak synoptic troughs swinging across the region with shortwaves being the primary forcing. A lack of upper level jet streak support and low level moisture returns from the gulf means we have limited instability and moisture to work with, and thus a fairly low chance for any severe weather at this time. Perhaps the best chance for a few storms would arrive Sunday night into Monday morning with some deterministic consensus between GFS/CFS/ECMWF with a Canadian surface low dragging a cold front through Minnesota and into Wisconsin producing the best forcing out of the forecast period. The rest of the chances look sporadic and mediocre with a lucky few seeing any legitimate rainfall from it. It has been a while since our last rainfall event and while we are still on pace for the month, it would be good to keep the momentum of drought busting going through to the end of the month. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1223 AM CDT Tue May 14 2024 What remains of the wildfire smoke aloft will push out early this morning, resulting in mostly clear skies throughout the day. VFR is expected throughout with FEW250 the most in terms of cloud cover until the final few hours where more clouds move in. Winds remain NE to E at or below 10kts. KMSP...No additional concerns. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ WED...VFR/MVFR, -SHRA late. Wind SE 10-15kts. THU...VFR, chc MVFR/-SHRA. Wind NW 10-15kts. FRI...VFR, chc MVFR/-TSRA. Wind SW 10-15kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...None. WI...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...TDH AVIATION...TDH