Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 290543
AFDARX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI
1143 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 852 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE BEEN WATCHING KMPX RADAR THIS EVENING AND THE CLASSIC DZ
ERUPTION. MPING...SURFACE...AND SOCIAL MEDIA REPORTS ALL CONFIRM
THAT FZDZ/DZ IS WIDESPREAD OVER THE MPX FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...WITH A THE EXCEPTION YET OF WEST CENTRAL WI. EXPECT THIS
AIR MASS TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND DZ/FZDZ TO MOVE IN.
I-94 AND NORTH STILL HAS ALL ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES BELOW 32 SO
THE ICING THERE WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. BUT IT WILL ONLY BE A
LIGHT GLAZE. WITH ROAD AND AIR TEMPERATURES SO CLOSE TO 32F IN
NWRN FORECAST AREA...AND INCOMING ECHO...THOUGHT IT WAS PRUDENT TO
EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY. AIR MASS AND LIFT JUST ADVECTS
INTO THAT AREA. DONT THINK THE EXPANDED ADVISORY AREA WILL SEE AS
WIDESPREAD OF A LIGHT ICE GLAZE BECAUSE OF SOME ABOVE FREEZING
READINGS...BUT AREAS WILL GET SO SLICK SO QUICK /I TRADEMARK
THAT/ THAT IT SEEMS PRUDENT.

TAKING A WAIT AND SEE APPROACH WITH AREAS FURTHER SOUTH OF THE
CURRENT ADVISORY. MAINLY WANT TO SEE THE TEMPERATURES...AND
WIDESPREAD NATURE TO THE WEATHER IN THE ADVISORY PRIOR TO
EXPANDING. DEWPOINTS ARE IN UPPER 20S OVER MUCH OF FORECAST AREA
LEADING TO A WET-BULB BELOW FREEZING WITH PRECIPITATION.

TO TV MEDIA...WILL TRY MY BEST TO MAKE THE CALL ON THE ADVISORY

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

SEE AVIATION SECTION BELOW FOR SHORT TERM UPDATE INFO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ON FRIDAY NIGHT...A CANADIAN COLD FRONT WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM SHOWS THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
SATURATION FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW. MEANWHILE THE OTHER MODELS SHOW
THAT THE BEST LIFT AND SATURATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND UPPER MICHIGAN. WITH THE
MODEL CONSENSUS...KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING
THAT THE SHORT WAVE FROM FRIDAY NIGHT WILL PUSH THE FRONT FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH THAT MUCH OF THE SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE ONLY MODEL
STILL SHOWING ADVISORY SNOW IS THE GEM. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SHIFTED MUCH OF THE SNOW SOUTH INTO THE MID
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. SINCE THIS IS A RELATIVELY NEW
DEVELOPMENT...STILL KEPT THE SNOW CHANCES IN THE MODEL CONSENSUS
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...FUTURE SHIFTS CAN TAKE THEM
OUT OR LOWER THESE SNOW CHANCES FURTHER.

TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOOK TO BE MUCH COLDER WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ON EITHER SIDE OF ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

FORECAST SEEMS TO HAVE STABILIZED FOR THE OVERNIGHT WITH A BETTER
FEEL FOR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR/LIFR WILL BUILD INTO THE TAF SITES BEFORE
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS KICK IN AND
SCOUR THE FOG AND DZ EAST.

DRIZZLE COULD STILL FREEZE ON SURFACES/WINGS AS THE TEMPERATURE
IS RIGHT NEAR THE FREEZING MARK ESPECIALLY AT KRST. EXPECT A
SUPERCOOLED LIQUID LAYER FROM THE SURFACE TO 5KFT OR 6KFT AGL
WHERE ICING COULD BE AN ISSUE.
&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ017-029-
     032>034-042>044.

MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ079-
     086>088.

IA...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BAUMGARDT
SHORT TERM...BAUMGARDT
LONG TERM...BOYNE
AVIATION...BAUMGARDT


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