Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Des Moines, IA

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000
FXUS63 KDMX 111718
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OMAHA/VALLEY NE
1218 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

BROAD LONG WAVE ROCKIES TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE IA WEATHER TODAY WITH
PRIMARY REFLECTIONS PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES. PV
TROUGH AND SHORT WAVES SETTLING INTO TROUGH BASE INTO THE ID
BITTERROOTS WILL MOVE MORE SOUTH THAN EAST FOR THE TIME BEING
HOWEVER KEEPING PRECIP AT BAY THROUGH 00Z. WIDESPREAD STRATUS COVERS
IA TOWARD DAYBREAK BUT CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY RISE LEADING TO HIGHER
BASES AND EVENTUALLY A MORE CELLULAR APPEARANCE. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW
SOME TEMP REBOUND LATE...BUT STILL KEEPING HIGHS NO BETTER THAN THE
UPPER 50S TO JUST ABOVE 60.  MOS CONSENSUS SEEMS REASONABLE VS MODEL
SOUNDINGS AND PROJECTED MIXING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

MAINLY DRY THROUGHOUT THE MID/LONG RANGE WITH ONLY A FEW CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. OTHERWISE FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES WITH WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. CURRENTLY HAVE
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DROP EAST
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. NOT A LOT OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT DO HAVE SOME CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR SENDING H85 TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 0C TO
+5C ACROSS THE CWA. ANY PRECIPITATION/CLOUD COVER SHOULD QUICKLY
MOVE OUT EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LARGE 1030MB HIGH
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY
TONIGHT BUT WITH CLOUD COVER EXPECTED SHOULD NOT DROP OFF TOO MUCH
AND STAY IN THE 40S. WITH THE CLOUDS/PRECIP/CAA FRIDAY EXPECT LITTLE
RECOVER IN TEMPS WITH A CHILLY FALL DAY MAINLY IN THE LOW 50S ACROSS
THE CWA. AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS
SHOULD PLUMMET INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA. PATCHY
FROST IN LOW-LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA. KEY WILL BE IF DEWPOINTS DROP ENOUGH GIVEN SOME LINGERING
MOISTURE AROUND FROM PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY.

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS. HOWEVER TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO
REBOUND SOMEWHAT GRADUALLY INCREASING FROM THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 60S.
ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH TO DROP THROUGH THE REGION TOWARD SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WHICH COULD BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS TO THE CWA...HOWEVER ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENSUES BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL US TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THEREFORE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK WITH GRADUALLY MODERATING/WARMING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

LARGE AREA OF MVFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SITES THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WILL LIFT THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
RETURNING TO VFR BY 00Z. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY BE GUSTY AT SITES THROUGH 00Z.
SHRA/RA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT SITES AROUND 06...REACHING ALL SITES
NEAR 12Z. WITH SHRA...ANTICIPATE LOW MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND
POSSIBLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AS WELL. HOWEVER...HAVE ONLY
TRENDED THAT WAY ATTM...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...AWB



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