Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261049
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
449 AM MDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL UPPER LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
AREA FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM (THRU 00Z SAT)...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER WRN NV
EARLY THIS MORNING WITH A SWLY FLOW OVER THE CWA. CONVECTION WAS
ACTIVE OVER THE NORTH UNDER WEAK JET SUPPORT OVERNIGHT AND WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT ACROSS THE NRN CWA THRU ABOUT DAYBREAK.

MOISTURE HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT WITH
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER SERN UT.

THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS INTO E-CENTRAL NV BY 00Z TODAY AND KEEPS THE
MOIST UNSTABLE SOUTHERLY FLOW GOING OVER THE CWA. EXPECT
CONVECTION TO BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THIS AFTN INTO TONIGHT
AFTER A MORNING LULL IN THE ACTIVITY...WITH THE LEAST COVERAGE
OVER THE FAR NORTH AND THE GREATEST OVER THE SOUTHEAST.

THE DEEPEST MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN OVER THE SRN CWA AND
SOME OF THE STORMS THERE COULD GENERATE HEAVY RAIN. HAVE HELD OFF
ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HOWEVER...AS STORMS WILL BE MOVING FAIRLY
RAPIDLY SO DURATION OF HEAVY RAIN WILL NOT BE ALL THAT LONG IN ANY
ONE SPOT UNLESS CELL TRAINING OCCURS.

THE UPPER LOW ENDS UP NEAR SLC BY 12Z WED AND PRECIP SHOULD
TRANSITION TO A MORE SYNOPTIC SCALE WRAP AROUND TYPE OVER THE NRN
CWA THRU WED MORNING. THE UPPER COOL POOL IS CENTERED OVER ERN UT
IN THE AFTN AND EXPECT THIS TO GENERATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVER ALL BUT THE FAR
WRN CWA. THE LOW SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST WED NIGHT WITH A DRY DAY
EXPECTED THU AND TEMPS REBOUNDING TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMS. FRI
SHOULD REMAIN DRY UNDER SHORT WAVE RIDGING WITH ADDITIONAL
WARMING.

&&

.LONG TERM (AFTER 00Z SATURDAY)...THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD
WILL FEATURE A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST...WITH A TROUGH IMPINGING ON
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SEVERAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INCREASING THE THREAT OF
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH.

THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN UTAH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY CROSS CENTRAL UTAH THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. 700MB TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT ARE CURRENTLY
FORECAST TO FALL TO 1-2C ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH BY MONDAY.

CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IN RESPECT TO COVERAGE OF
PRECIPITATION IS LOW DUE TO THE DEPENDENCE ON SUBTLE FEATURES
ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT LOOKS LIKELY
THAT TEMPERATURES WILL COOL FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...IT APPEARS THE LAST ROUND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED
AWAY FROM THE SLC TERMINAL THIS MORNING. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION IS
EXPECTED AFTER 18Z AND MAY IMPACT THE TERMINAL THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

WINDS MAY REMAIN SOMEWHAT ERRATIC THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE BECOMING
SOUTHERLY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN
18-20Z. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING PERIODS OF GUSTY AND
ERRATIC WINDS TO THE TERMINAL.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WILENSKY
LONG TERM/AVIATION...KRUSE

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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