Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 201041 CCA
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
441 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

CORRECTED LAST PARAGRAPH OF DISCUSSION SECTION

.SYNOPSIS...A CLOSED LOW OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST WILL
BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD TODAY AND SLOWLY CROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR MID WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE IS CENTERED TO OUR EAST THIS MORNING
WHILE A CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OFF THE SRN CA COAST. A MOIST
AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TO OUR SOUTH WITH PWAT APPROACHING AN INCH
ALONG OUR SRN BORDER. SOME CLOUDINESS HAS FORMED OVER SWRN UT IN
THE SELY FLOW BETWEEN THE CA LOW AND THE HIGH TO THE EAST WHILE
SKIES ARE CLEAR ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

THE SELY FLOW INCREASES TODAY AS THE CA LOW STARTS TO LIFT NWD AND
EXPECT SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP OVER SWRN UT BY AFTN WITH
SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY NWD OVER THE MTNS UP TO THE UINTAS.

IT APPEARS PRECIP WILL BECOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD ACROSS SWRN UT
TONIGHT SPREADING INTO CENTRAL UT TOWARDS MORNING AS THE LOW LIFTS
INTO WRN NV. THE PRECIP SHOULD REACH NRN UT LATE MORNING OR MIDDAY
SUN THEN START TO TAPER OFF FROM THE SW LATE SUN OR EARLY SUN EVE.
PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE N INTO THE NIGHT AS THE LOW TRACKS
TO A POSITION OVER FAR NRN UT BY EARLY MON. RESIDUAL SHOWERS LOOK
TO CONTINUE INTO MON AFTN ACROSS THE NERN CWA AS THE LOW SHIFTS
INTO WY WHILE THE S DRIES. THE N SHOULD DRY OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY MON
EVE.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL HEAVY RAIN ACROSS SRN UT LATE
TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE A MORE WIDESPREAD
LONGER DURATION PRECIP EVENT AS OPPOSED TO DISCRETE STRONG
CONVECTIVE CELLS. THESE WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO DEVELOP FARTHER
NORTH OVER THE CWA ON SUN AFTN ALTHO THEY COULD ALSO OCCUR OVER
THE S BUT EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST.

RIDGE CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE CWA MON NIGHT AND KEEP THE WEATHER
CLEAR AND DRY TUE INTO WED WITH A WARMING TREND.

IT APPEARS THE 12Z EC WAS AN OUTLIER SHOWING NO REAL DIGGING OF
THE UPPER TROF INTO THE GREAT BASIN TOWARDS THE END OF THE WEEK AS
THE NEW 00Z RUN HAS GONE BACK TO AN EARLIER SOLUTION SHOWING A LOW
CLOSING OFF WEST OF RENO BY 12Z SAT AND WELL WEST OF THE 00Z GFS
THAT HAD THE LOW NEAR WENDOVER AT THAT SAME TIME. THE LOW FORMING
FARTHER WEST WOULD KEEP UT IN THE WARM SECTOR LONGER BUT ALSO
GIVES THE LOW A LONGER TIME TO DRAW TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO ITS
CIRCULATION...WHICH THE EC DOES. REMOVED THE THU POPS AS NEITHER
MODEL STARTS PRECIP UNTIL THU NIGHT AT THE EARLIEST. RAISED POPS A
BIT FOR FRI AND SAT AS IT SHOULD BECOME SHOWERY IN EITHER SOLUTION
WITH THE GFS JUST COLDER. LEANED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER EC ON
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID TAF
PERIOD...THOUGH A CEILING ABOVE 8000 FT CAN BE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.  A LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY DRAINAGE WIND WILL
SHIFT TO A NORTHWEST FLOW LAKE BREEZE IN THE 19Z-21Z PERIOD.  A
SOUTHEAST DRAINAGE WIND WILL DEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE
ENHANCED A BIT BY A DEVELOPING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD TODAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST LIFTS NORTHEAST.  AHEAD OF THIS LOW...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL
SPREAD INTO SOUTHERN UTAH TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.  THE MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTHWARD
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE LOWS CONTINUES ITS NORTHEAST
TRACK...SPREADING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WETTING RAINS ACROSS THE REGION.  THE SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER
INTO MONDAY.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW FOR THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK...BEFORE YET ANOTHER VIGOROUS STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE REGION.  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY...THEN
CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...WILENSKY
FIRE WEATHER/AVIATION...BARJENBRUCH

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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