Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 291632
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1032 AM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL MOIST UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY CROSS THE REGION
TODAY. ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM WILL CROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. A DRIER AND WARMER
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.


&&

.DISCUSSION...HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TODAY TO INCLUDE HIGHER
POPS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR CWA FOR THIS MORNING AS A WELL
DEFINED SHORTWAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CREATES LIFT OVER
THAT AREA. THE MODELS CAPTURE THIS AS WELL...ESPECIALLY THE HRRR.
BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE THERE APPEARS TO BE GOOD SUBSIDENCE SO HAVE
LOWER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST FOR THIS MORNING FROM ABOUT DELTA
SOUTHWARD.

ACROSS THE NORTH THE POPS WERE LOWERED THROUGH MIDDAY BUT WITH THE
WRAP AROUND PORTION OF THE STORM SYSTEM STILL FORECAST TO MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH THIS AFTERNOON THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE
AFTERNOON POPS LOOKED GOOD. HOWEVER...THIS PRECIPITATION FOR THIS
AFTERNOON IS MORE ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION AND SO THE THREAT
OF THUNDERSTORMS NOT AS GREAT SO BACKED OFF TO EITHER ISOLATED OR
REMOVED ALTOGETHER. OVERALL THE RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE RATHER
SMALL TODAY AS PWS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
0.50 OF AN INCH.

DID NOT UPDATE ANY TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY AS THEY LOOKED
REASONABLE.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF IMPACTING THE SLC TERMINAL WITH SOME
ERRATIC WINDS AND CIGS LOWERING BELOW 7K FT AGL. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18 AND 20Z BUT THERE IS
A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THE WIND SHIFT OCCURRING AFTER 21Z.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION...STRUTHWOLF

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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