Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 031116
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
515 AM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE TODAY BEFORE SLOWLY SHIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THIS
WEEKEND. INCREASING MOISTURE AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ELONGATED NW-SE ACROSS NORTHERN
NEVADA THROUGH SOUTHERN UTAH THIS MORNING. MOISTURE TO THE TUNE OF
AROUND 0.9-1.1 INCHES OF PWAT REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
UTAH WHILE A DRIER AIRMASS WITH AROUND 0.5 INCHES OF PWAT IS NOTED
ACROSS FAR NORTHERN UTAH. THE RIDGE WILL BECOME LESS ELONGATED THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TO SPREAD THROUGHOUT UTAH.
ALTHOUGH THIS MEANS THAT THE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW FROM YESTERDAY WILL
NO LONGER BE AVAILABLE TO SPREAD MOISTURE INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH...THE
AIRMASS WILL STILL RETAIN MUCH OF THE MOISTURE THAT IS ALREADY IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT...EXPECT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO DEVELOP ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN UTAH. BECAUSE PWATS TODAY WILL BE A BIT
LOWER THAN THEY WERE YESTERDAY...STORMS SHOULD IN GENERAL BE A BIT
WEAKER AND SEE LESS AREAL COVERAGE...BUT A HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
STILL EXISTS GIVEN THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND WEAK FLOW.
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL REMAIN VERY WARM...WITH PERSISTENCE BEING A
REASONABLE FORECAST FOR MANY AREAS.

THE RIDGE IS STILL EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVERHEAD FOR TOMORROW. AS IT
DOES SO...MOISTURE WILL START TO INCREASE AGAIN INTO THE AREA. THIS
MOISTURE SURGE WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS
EAST. THIS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASING TREND IN PRECIPITATION
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. ADDITIONALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION. THIS IS A FEATURE THAT
HAS BEEN RESOLVED IN THE MODELS FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...ALTHOUGH THE
00Z EC IS A BIT SLOWER WITH THIS WAVE NOW THAN THE 00Z GFS SO SOME
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS.

THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN...THEN PUMP UP SLIGHTLY OVER NEVADA ON MONDAY.
THE RIDGE AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY MIGRATE EAST THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS A CLOSED LOW OFF THE WEST COAST MOVES INTO THE SF BAY
AREA. THE RESULTING SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD
DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME.

WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND
PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL SEE A CORRESPONDING DROP LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...THE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECOVER TOO MUCH BY MIDWEEK WITH
THE DRIER AIR DUE TO THE WEAKENING OF THE RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...SOUTHERLY WINDS AT THE KSLC TERMINAL WILL SWITCH TO
NORTHWEST BETWEEN 17Z AND 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL KEEP A HOT
AIRMASS ACROSS THE DISTRICT TODAY WITH SLIGHT COOLING SATURDAY.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHERN UTAH TODAY WITH A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOW AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VALLEYS TODAY WITH ONLY
ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE. THE MOISTURE THEN WILL
SPREAD NORTH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. THIS
WILL BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HIGHER HUMIDITY AND AN INCREASING CHANCE OF WETTING RAINS
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE MOISTURE INCREASE ALONG WITH A COOLING
TREND. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DISTRICT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A DRIER SOUTHWEST FLOW IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SPREAD INTO THE GREAT
BASIN AROUND MIDWEEK BRINGING A DRYING TREND FOR THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK ALONG WITH LOCAL GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

CHENG/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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