Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT
FXUS65 KSLC 142233
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
433 PM MDT Fri Oct 14 2016
.SYNOPSIS...A series of fast-moving Pacific storm systems will
impact mainly northern Utah through the first half of next week.
.SHORT TERM (Thru 00Z Tuesday)...A strong southwest flow
persists over the Great Basin this aftn downstream from a broad
upper trof in the Gulf of Alaska. Considerable mid and high level
cloudiness over the CWA has been thinning a little this aftn as it
shifts sewd and expect this process to continue into this eve with
just partly cloudy skies over the srn CWA tonight.
Gusty south winds have developed across the CWA with the strongest
winds across the mtns and west.
Precip is focused along a frontal boundary that is just beginning
to work its way into nwrn UT. Just a few sprinkles fell across nrn
UT ahead of this frontal band but expect fairly widespread precip
to accompany the band as it sags into nrn UT tonight. The srn
extent looks to be about the Salt Lake valley after midnight with
the band dissipating through sunrise Saturday.
Winds behind the front will shift to northwest and should drop
off fairly quickly. Winds south of the front will also diminish
but they will persist overnight in some areas.
The flow backs around and increases again Sat aftn ahead of the
next cold short wave ejecting out of the broad ern PAC trof and
surface winds look to be about as strong as today or maybe a touch
stronger over swrn UT. Todays winds have pretty much stayed at
sub advisory levels. Even if winds tomorrow are a few knots
stronger in spots, still don`t see a need for a wind highlight at
this time as widespread advisory level speeds are not anticipated.
Frontal zone precip associated with this next wave is forecast to
move into nrn UT after midnight Sat night and could reach somewhat
farther south on Sun as the associated short wave is a bit
stronger and colder than todays.
It still appears that a major portion of the ern Pac trof slides
inland Mon bringing yet colder air and a better chance of precip
over more of the nrn CWA.
.LONG TERM (After 00Z Tuesday)...One last wave is progged to move
across the area on Tuesday, bringing one last shot of cold air
to northern Utah. The wave is noticeably stronger and more moist
in the 12Z GFS compared to the EC, and also takes more of a
southerly track. The last wave is more progressive in the EC
solution, with strong ridging building in by Wednesday. In the GFS
solution, precip would linger over the higher terrain of northern
Utah into Wednesday afternoon. Have raised POPs for Tuesday into
Wednesday to account for the GFS solution. By Thursday, high
pressure moves back in with a warming and drying trend through day
.AVIATION...Southerly winds at the SLC terminal will continue
through the next several hours. A cold front will cross the
terminal between 01-03Z switching winds to the northwest. Winds
are expected to remain from the northwest through at least 09Z.
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