Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 162140
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
340 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH MOISTURE BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO
THE FAR SOUTH. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BEFORE DRY AIR RETURNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A FAIRLY WEAK FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM
ROUGHLY CEDAR CITY TO KANAB. THIS FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
ANY ADDITIONAL PROGRESS SOUTHWEST...KEEPING FAR SOUTHWESTERN UTAH
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOMEWHAT MORE MOIST AIRMASS. DECENT
INSTABILITY REMAINS IN THIS AREA...THOUGH SHEAR IS QUITE LIMITED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR AND MOSTLY SOUTHWEST
OF THE BOUNDARY. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE PRODUCED HEAVY
RAINFALL. GIVEN THE SHEAR PROFILE...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE NEAR CELLS ABLE TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH FOR A PERIOD
OF TIME...PARTICULARLY NEAR CELL MERGERS AND COLLISION OF GUST
FRONTS. THE MOST FLOOD PRONE LOCATIONS SUCH AS SLOT CANYONS...DRY
WASHES AND STREAMS IN STEEP TERRAIN WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO BE
IMPACTED.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE MAY EXIST TO DEVELOP A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BUT THE
FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL BE MUCH LESS.

SEVERAL WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST OF
THE STATE BOTH DAYS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...BRINGING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE AT THE SLC TERMINAL
THROUGH 04-05Z THIS EVENING THEN SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST. WINDS WILL
BE OCCASIONALLY GUSTY THROUGH ABOUT 00Z THIS AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE DISTRICT THIS EVENING WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
NEAR OR JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PREVAIL OVER SOUTHERN UTAH THIS EVENING. THIS
MOISTURE WILL EXIT INTO ARIZONA OVERNIGHT AND AND THE ENTIRE REGION
WILL BE UNDER A GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...MOISTURE WILL RETURN ACROSS THE REGION BUT IT
APPEARS THAT IT WILL NOT BE AS DEEP AS THIS LAST SURGE.
INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL RETURN TO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE NORTHERN AREAS BEING THE LAST TO
SEE THUNDERSTORMS. THE RIDGE WILL REPOSITION OVER NEW MEXICO FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE THE
LOWEST THURSDAY BUT COME UP SOME FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE
LOWERING SUNDAY THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR UTZ489.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

KRUSE/STRUTHWOLF/WILENSKY

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



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