Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 261605
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1005 AM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN STATES THROUGH
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5 ANALYSIS INDICATE A
STRONG UPPER HIGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN...WITH
AXIS STRETCHING FROM NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA NORTHWEST INTO
NORTHEASTERN NEVADA...DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN UTAH. PWAT
REMAINS MARGINAL AT BEST FOR ANY CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH
VALUES RANGING FROM .5 TO .6 INCHES...BUT ANTICIPATE A FEW
ISOLATED CELLS WILL DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING OVER THE TERRAIN
BELOW SAID AXIS AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION IS OCCURRING
ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.

A CONTINUED WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK REMAINS THE BIG
PICTURE FOCUS REGARDING SENSIBLE WEATHER. THE MEAN POSITION OF
THE HIGH WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH TUESDAY BUT WILL STRENGTHEN
AND EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. H7 TEMPS AT KSLC ARE PROGGED TO WARM
FROM ABOUT +16 C AT 00Z TODAY TO +19 C SUNDAY INTO MONDAY PER LAST
SEVERAL RUNS SO IT REMAINS A HIGH CONFIDENCE FORECAST FOR TRIPLE
DIGIT HEAT ACROSS THE WASATCH FRONT WITH DIXIE PUSHING 110 F THIS
WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR ALONG AND WEST
OF THE RIDGE AXIS INTO EARLY WEEK...WITH PWAT TRENDS BENEATH THAT
ZONE GRADUALLY CLIMBING TOWARDS .70 TO .80 INCHES BY SUNDAY. AXIS
WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST ORIENTING ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THROUGH THAT TIME. ALTHOUGH CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LARGELY
ISOLATED AND TERRAIN BASED DO ANTICIPATE AREAL SCOPE OF THIS
POTENTIAL TO SPREAD NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AGAIN THOUGH...THE REAL TAKEAWAY MOVING FORWARD IS THE
HEAT.

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES MADE OR PLANNED.

&&

.AVIATION...OPERATIONAL WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL AT
THE KSLC TERMINAL THROUGH THE VALID TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
SURFACE WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO A LIGHT NORTHWEST BETWEEN 16-17Z
AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TO ABOVE 7 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER UTAH THROUGH THE
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO MORE HOT AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. GUSTY WINDS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY THAN MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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