Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KSLC 160944
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
344 AM MDT SAT AUG 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...WITH A RIDGE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL SPREAD
SOME MOISTURE BACK INTO THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES THIS MORNING. AS THE TROUGH
SLIDES EAST...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
REGION. WITH THE ELONGATED RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING FROM THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TO WEST OF THE FOUR CORNER AREAS...A DRY WEST TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL PREVAIL...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY
AROUND A HALF AN INCH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THUS...ONLY A FEW
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF EASTERN UTAH WILL SEE ANY CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ALL PROG A MID LEVEL LOW TO DROP SOUTH ALONG
THE PACIFIC COAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH NAM A BIT FARTHER
EAST WITH LOW. IN RESPONSE...RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD AND REGION SHOULD SEE A RETURN OF A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW.
MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD START LATE MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
TUESDAY...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BACK TO AROUND AN INCH.
WHILE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE
AXIS...CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE POPS TO ALL OF
FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WITH SOME UPPER SUPPORT FROM
UPPER JET NOSING INTO REGION.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...DIFFERENCES SHOW UP BETWEEN GFS
AND ECMWF WITH ECMWF INDICATING MORE WESTERLY FLOW AND THUS DRYING
OF AIR MASS. EVEN ECMWF FLOW IS WEAK...SO NOT SURE MOISTURE WILL
BE SWEPT OUT OF AREA. THUS...LIKE EXISTING CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...PRIMARILY IN HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS FOR PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AT KSLC.
SOUTHERLY DRAINAGE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST
AROUND 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A SMALL THREAT FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL AS THE FAR
EASTERN VALLEYS TODAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ALONG THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LOOKS TO PULL MOISTURE BACK NORTHWARD INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH LATE MONDAY...THEN NORTHWARD INTO THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA BY MID-WEEK. CONFIDENCE REMAINS SOMEWHAT LOW REGARDING
HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY WORK ITS WAY NORTHWARD...BUT AT
A MINIMUM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...BARJENBRUCH
FIRE WEATHER...SEAMAN
AVIATION...SEAMAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.