Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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FXUS65 KSLC 182143

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
343 PM MDT Tue Oct 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...One last storm system will cross northern Utah and
southwest Wyoming through this evening before high pressure
returns for the latter half of the week.


.SHORT TERM (Through 00Z Saturday)...The last storm system of the
series is making its way across northern Utah and southwest
Wyoming this afternoon. Showers with a few thunderstorms have
developed, with the best coverage along the UT/ID border. This
precipitation will continue through the afternoon and evening,
with the focus shifting eastward as the trough continues through
the area. Precip is progged to diminish late this evening. Maxes
remain on the cool side across northern Utah, about 10F below
seasonal normals, while temperatures over southern Utah are
running pretty close to climo.

Behind the exiting storm system, high pressure will build in,
resulting in a quick drying trend. Warming will initially be slow
in northwest flow. Also, a trough moving well north of the area is
progged to flatten the ridge a bit on Thursday. However, the ridge
is expected to reamplify on Friday, with more robust warming in
southwest flow bringing maxes to or slightly above seasonal
normals by Friday afternoon despite some developing valley


.LONG TERM (After 00Z Saturday)...A mild southwest flow will be
over the Great Basin at the start of the long term period. Models
are in good agreement thru Sun keeping the flow mostly dry and the
airmass warm for this time of year. With the increasing southwest
flow expect somewhat improved mixing with valleys warming altho
they still probably won`t reach their full potential given the H7
temps of +5 or +6C.

Models also agree on the spread of moisture into the CWA starting
Sun night with weak short waves rippling past in the swly flow
bringing a threat of precip at times Mon thru Tue. Temps will cool
somewhat with a cooler airmass and increased cloud cover but will
still stay near to above normal. Kept pops near or a little under
climo at this time as confidence is increasing in the guidance but
still is on the low side.

Models now have come into better agreement beyond the long term
period with the EC moving significantly towards the GFS idea of a
low closing off in the ern Pac Wed. They still differ on how they
handle the closed low however after Wed.


.AVIATION...Northerly winds are expected to prevail at the SLC
terminal through at least 05Z, though there is a slight chance of
variable winds due to nearby showers between 22Z and 01Z. There is
also a 50 percent chance of temporary ceilings below 7000 feet
during this time if one of the stronger showers passes overhead.




SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM...Wilensky

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