Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Salt Lake City, UT

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000
FXUS65 KSLC 191637
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1037 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A STORM SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
EASTERN GREAT BASIN TODAY. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE
IN THE WEEK AND IMPACT MUCH OF UTAH THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.DISCUSSION...CLOSED UPPER LOW NOTED IN MORNING WATER VAPOR AND H5
ANALYSIS REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER IN THE VICINITY OF KENV. A STRONG SOUTHERN BRANCH JET
CONTINUES TO PENETRATE INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST NORTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL COLORADO...STRONGEST PVA ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MOVING EAST THROUGH COLORADO THEN EXTENDS INTO
NORTHWEST COLORADO/WESTERN WYOMING AND FAR NORTHEASTERN UTAH
WITHIN WRAP AROUND ENVIRONMENT COINCIDENT WITH THE EXIT REGION OF
SAID JET. HAVE NOTED WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITHIN
THIS ENVIRONMENT...WITH FOCUSED SHOWER ACTIVITY TIED CLOSELY TO
THE LOW ACROSS THE WEST DESERT. SOME MID LEVEL DRYING IS NOTED
WITHIN SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE...ADVECTING NORTH.

ANTICIPATING THE LOW TO SHEAR/FILL TODAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
CIRCULATION CENTER RETROGRADES WEST INTO A WEAKNESS OVER WESTERN
NEVADA...AND PRIMARY SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST
THROUGH COLORADO INTO THE UPPER PLAINS. H5 PROGS INDICATE AN
ELONGATED DEFORMATION ZONE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL WYOMING INTO SOUTHERN IDAHO MAINTAINING LIFT FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE THE NORM
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THIS DRIVEN BY THE TERRAIN/DAYTIME
HEATING WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT. UPDATED EARLIER TO
INCREASE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DUE TO RECENT RADAR
TRENDS AND ANTICIPATED DEFORMATION DEVELOPMENT/FORCING...LOWERED
POPS ALONG THE BULK OF THE I-15 CORRIDOR SOUTH OF OGDEN THROUGH
CENTRAL UTAH BENEATH SHEAR ZONE WHERE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE MORE
CELLULAR AND TERRAIN INFLUENCED.

PWATS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA REMAIN ABOVE .50 INCHES
WITH BULK OF THAT RESIDING AT THE LOW/MID LEVELS...SURFACE
DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S MOST AREAS UTAH VALLEY
AND POINTS NORTH. LCLS REMAIN LOW PER SPC MESOANALYSIS/BUFR
SOUNDINGS WITH A RELATIVELY DEEP WARM CLOUD LAYER FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. EXPECTING THE CELLS THAT DO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN
PORTIONS WILL MAINTAIN A LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THOUGH MORE
SCATTERED IN NATURE...THIS AFTERNOON.

COMBINATION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL MAINTAIN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION TOMORROW...THOUGH HEIGHTS WILL BE
RISING SOME IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT CLOSED LOW TO IMPACT THE AREA
LATE WEEK INTO AND LIKELY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. INCREASING
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IN ADVANCE OF THIS LOW WILL LIKELY INCREASE
SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD PRECIP
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY W/PASSAGE OF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE SLC TERMINAL WITH
CIGS GENERALLY ABOVE 6000 FT. BRIEF PERIODS OF CIGS AT OR NEAR 6K
AGL AS WELL AS VARIABLE WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN VICINITY SHOWERS
AFTER ABOUT 17Z. THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE THAT A THUNDERSTORM
WILL IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER ABOUT 21Z. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY
SOUTHEAST WITH A SHIFT TO NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18-19Z...WITH A 30
PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE WIND SHIFT WILL BE DELAYED UNTIL 20-21Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS WILL LINGER TODAY ACROSS
THE NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF THE STATE ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS...PROVIDING A GOOD CHANCE FOR A
WETTING RAIN. SNOW LEVEL REMAINS AROUND 8KFT. MORE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
UTAH...FOCUSED ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH DRIER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO MONDAY HUMIDITY LEVELS. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST OF STORMS THROUGHOUT THE REGION TODAY.


&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

MERRILL/VERZELLA


FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)


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