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000
FXUS65 KRIW 291743
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1043 AM MST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...ADDED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (ISSUED AT 257 SM MST)

IMAGERY SHOWING RIDGE OVR LOW ACROSS THE WRN CONUS WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW
ONCE AGAIN. EXTREME WEST SIDE OF THE SW TROF THAT PASSED THRU THE FA
TODAY NOW MOVING OUT OF THE ERN PORTION OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING...TAKING LIGHT PRECIP WITH IT AND LEAVING DEVELOPING AREAS
OF PATCHY FOG AROUND THE CWA. YELLOWSTONE AND THE NRN BIGHORN BASIN
CURRENTLY HAVE THE MOST FOG IN THE VALLEYS AND BASIN BOTTOMS.

BEGINNING OF FCST...FOG IS EXPECTED TO HAVE TO HAVE DEVELOPED AND
PERSIST INTO THE MORNING HRS OVR MOST BASINS...MANY WRN
VALLEYS...AND THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES.
ALTHOUGH CURRENTLY FCSTING THE FOG TO LIFT BY LATE MORNING...IT
COULD PERSIST OVR SOME AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF FOG SCHEDULED ACROSS MANY OF THE SAME AREAS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO FRI MORNING.

WE WILL BE LARGELY DEVOID OF PRECIP UNTIL LATE SATURDAY...EXCEPT FOR
AN EVER SO SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF A SPRINKLE OR TWO ACROSS THE SRN
BORDER AREA ON FRIDAY DUE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE CLOSED LOW
SYSTEM ACROSS THE DESERT SW OUT OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY THE WEAK TROF
UNDER THE RIDGE AS MENTIONED ABOVE. JET PHASING OF THE SRN BRANCH
AND CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD OCCUR BY FRI NIGHT NEAR THE NRN BAJA REGION.
HOWEVER THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE SRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL
KEEP THE TRACK FOR THIS WET STORM SYSTEM WELL SOUTH OF THE FA THIS
TIME AROUND...ONLY SCRAPING THE SRN BORDER OF WY WITH MODEST
MOISTURE THRU SAT MORNING.

OTHERWISE...WELL UPSTREAM AND CURRENTLY OVR THE GULF OF AK...A
PORTION OF THE NRN BRANCH OF THE JET WILL MOVE AROUND THE RIDGE OVR
THE EPAC/WRN CONUS...EVENTUALLY MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE NRN CWA BY
LATE SAT...PUSHING A DEVELOPING LOW AND FRONT THRU MT THEN WY BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EVE. POST FRONTAL POP CHANCES WILL INCREASE MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN AND ERN ZONES...E OF THE DIVIDE...BEHIND THIS CLIPPER
LIKE FRONT. THE PREVIOUS DAYS RELATIVELY DRY ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH
THE PROJECTED TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP MOISTURE AT A PREMIUM...SO ONLY
EXPECTING RELATIVELY LIGHT PRECIP EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVERNIGHT
SAT...BUT ALL AS SNOW...AS OPPOSED TO THE MOST RECENT WEATHER
SYSTEM. THIS WILL USHER IN THE BEGINNINGS OF A WEEK`S WORTH OF
SEVERAL UPR LVL DISTURBANCES THAT WILL MOVE QUICKLY THRU THE
PERSISTENT UPR LVL NW FLOW...BRINGING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A MAINLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. WOULD STILL EXPECT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND
NORTH. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE
TROUGH BRIEFLY FLATTENING OUT THE WEST COAST RIDGE AS IT PUSHES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS THEN
PROJECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF SNOWFALL
OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST AND BIGHORN MTS...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS IN THE WIND CORRIDOR. IN WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...THE
WESTERN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK...WITH MODELS SHOWING A RELATIVELY
MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH PERHAPS A
DISTURBANCE OR TWO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CHANCES OF
SNOWFALL IN THE FORECAST...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY SPILLING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AT TIMES. MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO STRUGGLE WITH THE
PLACEMENT/TIMING OF AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT IN THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
TIME FRAME. THE GFS KEEPS THE ARCTIC AIR MASS NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING THIS COLD AIR MASS
IMPACTING THE AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS
ARE HINTING AT THE WESTERN RIDGE SHIFTING A BIT OVER THE ROCKIES
THURSDAY WITH MILDER AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS.

AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

DRIER AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH CLEAR
SKIES. FOG HAS DISSIPATED ACROSS MOST AREAS...EXCEPT NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE BIGHORN BASIN...NEAR KGEY. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION...KEEPING CHANCES FOR THE FOG
TO REMAIN HIGH. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON...THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FOG MORE PATCHY
AND MAINLY OVER THE LOWER BASINS...VCNTY KRIW AND KWRL THURSDAY
NIGHT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

LOW IFR/LIFR CIGS OR FOG CONTINUE LATE THIS MORNING OVER THE
WESTERN VALLEYS AND SOUTHWEST. MOST OF THE FOG OR LOWER CIGS WILL
ERODE BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
SPREAD IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRASN INTO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER 06Z
FRIDAY WITH MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO STAY VCNTY
INTERSTATE 80 AND SOUTH. LOWER IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT FOR KBPI AND KPNA.

FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER IS LOW FOR ALL AREAS...AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH NEXT
WEEK AS. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL NOT FALL AGAIN ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE NEXT WORK WEEK...A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES WILL RIDE THROUGH THE REGION...AFFECTING MAINLY THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN DISPATCH ZONES. SMOKE DISPERSION WILL BE POOR
ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION TODAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL SEE
IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH MIXING ABILITY AND DISPERSION...ESPECIALLY EAST
OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...LAVOIE
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN