Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 280534
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1130 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATE...ADDED 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH COVERAGE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE THREATS WITH ANY STORM
ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORM STRENGTH WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYLIGHT
THIS EVENING...WITH MOST CONVECTION ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT.
LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN PERIODS OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL HELP TO BRING A BREAK FROM SHOWER
ACTIVITY FRIDAY MORNING...AND HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
AREA FOR FRIDAY. A WEAK PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAIN PEAKS...WITH LITTLE TO NO SHOWER ACTIVITY
ANTICIPATED OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THRU THURSDAY

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING...

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER
THE PACNW WILL INCREASE THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER. MUCH OF THE DANGER ON SATURDAY WILL BE RELATED TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND WIND GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH BUT IT WILL ALSO
BE UNSTABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WHICH CAN LEAD TO
ENHANCED FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD ANY FIRES START. ON SUNDAY...THE COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH DIGGING TO THE WEST ADVANCES...IT
WILL LIKELY SETTLE INTO WESTERN...NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN WYOMING
FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY...ENDING THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT IN THOSE
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A WETTING RAIN IN
THESE AREAS. PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WYOMING WILL HAVE SOME MID LEVEL
MOISTURE SURGING FORTH BUT IT LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY IN THE LOWER
LEVELS FOR ANY WETTING RAINS...THEREFORE THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH WAS
EXTENDED INTO SUNDAY FOR NATRONA AND EASTERN FREMONT COUNTIES TO
COVER THE DRY LIGHTNING THREAT AS WELL AS THE CONTINUED LOW HUMIDITY
AND GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR
EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL LEAD TO A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WE LOOK TO REMAIN IN SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR
MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD AS RIDGING REMAINS OVER THE MIDWEST AND
TROUGHS DIG INTO THE PACNW. THIS WILL LEAVE US IN BETWEEN WITH
OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND WITH A FEW MORE
DRY AND WINDY DAYS POSSIBLE...THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR A RED FLAG DAY
LOOKS AT THIS TIME TO BE NEXT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH A SIMILAR
SETUP TO WHAT WE ARE GOING TO SEE THIS WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD -TSRA ACROSS EAST CENTRAL WYOMING WILL MAINLY
AFFECT KCPR-50SM E OF KCPR THROUGH 8Z BEFORE CLEARING THE AREA.
AREAS OF MVFR FU USHERED IN BY A NORTHERLY FLOW VCNTY AND EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WILL LIKELY LINGER THROUGH 16Z-20Z FRIDAY BEFORE
DISSIPATING.  ONLY A FEW -SHRA/-TSRA ARE EXPECTED OVER AND VCNTY
MTNS FRIDAY AFTN WITH MINIMAL CHANCES OF AFFECTING ANY TERMINALS.
LIGHT SFC WINDS LESS THAN 12KTS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  A BACKING S-SW FLOW SHOULD KEEP MOST OF THE AREA SMOKE
FREE WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A GENERALLY QUIET BEGINNING TO THE FIRE WEATHER PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WEAK MOISTURE MAY
INTRODUCE A FEW MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... WITH HIGH PRESSURE OTHERWISE BRINGING LIGHT WIND AND
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATION. THE WEEKEND WILL BRING A
DIFFERENT STORY. A SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA...RESULTING IN
STRENGTHENING WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HUMIDITY EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...AND THE COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITY...STRONG WIND...AND DRY FUELS HAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. STAY
TUNED FOR UPDATES RELATING TO THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING FOR WYZ275>277-279-281>283-285-287.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR WYZ280-289-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM


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