Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 170801
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
201 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather through the middle of the week, with warmer
  temperatures.

- Next system details still uncertain, but becoming more likely
  to disrupt the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The well-defined block pattern remains stalled across the
western US, and will dominate the weather across western WY
through the middle of the upcoming week. Today will see
temperatures similar to Saturday as partly cloudy skies and
light northerly flow continue to draw slightly cooler air
southward from Canada. The core of the warmer air aloft arrives
tomorrow, with H7 temperatures +1 to +3C, which will translate
to sfc temperatures soaring into the 60s east of the divide.
Areas west of the divide will push into the lower 50s, but are
still hindered by remaining snowpack.

Models and ensembles still point to the blocking feature rapidly
breaking down starting Wednesday. Starting to get a little more
confident that the timing of change for Wyoming happening
Wednesday night into Thursday, with westerly flow establishing
across the state bringing more Pacific moisture. Most
precipitation would be confined to the mountainous areas, but
any enhancement from passing shortwaves would bring the
potential for light rain into the lower elevations. This patter
looks to continue through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 951 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

A weak, and mainly dry, cold front pushes through Saturday night.
Its main effect will be a northward shift in winds for many
sites. A few, very light snow showers are possible in favored
terrain, such as near KCPR and KLND. Models are not showing
great confidence in any showers, so will leave VCSH in the
respective TAFs. KRIW could also see VCSH conditions, though low
confidence leans leaving it out of the TAF. The front also
brings lower clouds. VFR conditions should prevail, though
locations east of the Divide, and those with the low snow
chances, could see marginal MVFR.

Models keep a north-northeast wind at KJAC overnight and through
Saturday. Winds may shift more easterly late afternoon, but not
large confidence, so have left it out for now.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Wittmann


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