Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 160800
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
200 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- High pressure building into the region, with above normal
  temperatures through the middle of next week.

- Next storm system possible later in the week, but confidence
  is still very low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 112 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

The main weather pattern across the region will be dominated by
a blocking feature the next few days, deflecting the most
active weather away from Wyoming, and bringing warmer
temperatures well into the upcoming week. The axis of the Rex
Block will shift overhead during the next 24 hours or so, but
not before a brief shortwave sweeps in from the north. This wave
is very weak and moisture-starved, so most precip will be virga
showers not reaching the ground. A couple areas of the Wind
River and Bighorn ranges could see some snow flurries reach the
sfc, but accumulations will be minimal.

Models hold the blocking pattern in place through at least
Tuesday, with well above normal temperatures in the 50s and 60s
and mostly clear skies. For comparison, average temperatures
last year were 15 to 20 degrees colder, with a significant
snowpack still present here in Riverton and most of the region.
The only location which will see somewhat subdued temperatures
the next couple days would be a good section of southwest
Wyoming along the I-80 corridor and into southern Fremont
County, due to the fresh snowpack received in the past couple
days. Stronger solar radiation will help start melting this off,
but it will take a couple days to really clear this snowpack
out, so temperatures will only reach the 30s and lower 40s into
early next week.

Models do have the blocking feature finally breaking down later
Wednesday, which is slower than previous model runs. This does
seem a bit quick for breaking down a blocking feature of this
amplitude, so will keep expectations in check for now. Once the
blocking feature does break down later in the week, overall flow
looks to be more zonal off the Pacific, so some increased
moisture returning to the region looks to be the result.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

High clouds will increase southward over areas east of the
Divide to start the TAF period. Any clouds over far southern WY
are expected to stay south of KRKS. Winds will generally stay
light (< 11 kt) for most terminals through the forecast. KRKS
will be the exception, where gusts around 25 kt will return
Saturday afternoon. These winds will decrease by 00Z, with
sustained winds around 12kt continue through the night. Models
continue to depict shower chances over areas east of the Divide
Saturday night, despite the drier air in place. Most of these
showers will occur over the central mountains, but could impact
KCOD and KCPR in the form of virga showers.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...LaVoie


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