Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 141922
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
122 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heaviest snowfall comes to an end this afternoon, with
  scattered showers possible through the evening.

- Warming temperatures, dry conditions, and mostly sunny skies
  are forecast for Friday, with this trend continuing into the
  weekend.

- High pressure builds in this weekend, aiding dry and mild
  weather in prevailing over the Cowboy State. There are early
  indications of mild temperatures with highs in the 50s and 60s
  for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 109 PM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

The drive into the office from Lander this morning was quite the
experience. The snow amounts gradually decreased the closer I got to
Riverton. This is a good example of upsloping weakening as you get
farther away from the mountains. Snow accumulations will likely
display this difference in forcing with amounts decreasing the
farther east from the Wind River Range you go. Other things to note
regarding this system is the over performance that occurred in
Sweetwater County. This can be seen in OBS from RKS where winds
gusted over 50 mph at times overnight and early snow reports show
amounts greater than 6 inches in some places. The over performance
here is likely due to models not grasping the jet dynamics that
moved over that areas overnight, which helped provide ample dynamics
for moderate to heavy snowfall.

Winter Weather Advisories were expired early this morning for parts
of Natrona and Fremont Counties, as well as the Bighorn Range.
Winter Storm Warnings will be let to expire at noon today as
light snow showers linger. Due to strong gusty winds and snow
showers over Sweetwater County Winter Weather Advisories will be
expiring at noon today as well. Snow will gradually dissipate
through the morning and early afternoon today with scattered
showers possible into the evening. Winds will remain gusty over
the Wind Corridor today, especially Sweetwater County where
gusts of 50+ mph have been reported this morning. Winds
eventually die down by the late evening with Sweetwater County
staying breezy overnight. Temperatures are forecast to be cool
across much of the Cowboy State with the Bighorn and Upper Green
River Basins seeing the mildest temperatures. Fog may develop
overnight into Friday morning in areas who received snow amounts
of 3-6+ inches. Another factor to fog development will be how
quickly skies can clear overnight. Currently, fog does not look
likely (<20%)to develop, with parts of Fremont and Sweetwater
Counties having the best chance to see any.

Friday is looking quite pleasant with clearing skies, warming
temperatures, and dry conditions. This pattern continues into the
weekend with temperatures continuing to warm. High pressure builds
in for the weekend and the low that brought snow to parts of the
state remains far to the south of WY. This area of high pressure
remains in place over the western/central CONUS through much of the
upcoming week. Due to this, dry conditions are expected to
prevail through the week, with temperatures continuing to warm.
Highs for the start of next week are currently forecast to near
the 50s and even reach the mid to upper 60s in some places. The
CPC Temperature and Precipitation 8-14 day outlook is showing a
possible return to active weather after the expected lull in
activity we will see next week. The current outlook shows 40-50%
chance of above normal precipitation and a 40 to 50% chance of
below normal temperatures for most of the state by the end of
March. It is important to keep in mind that this is still far
out and there is a high amount of uncertainty in these
forecasts. If the outlook does actually come to fruition, its
possible that March may go out as a lion rather than a lamb.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1158 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

A spring storm is currently winding down across central and southern
Wyoming. While precipitation will generally decrease in coverage
through the afternoon, lingering snow showers are expected in the
vicinity of several terminals. KLND is most likely to see continued
MVFR/IFR conditions through mid-afternoon. Showers will wane after
sunset and end by the early morning hours. Otherwise, KRKS will
continue to see strong gusts through tonight, decreasing Friday
morning. As for fog, a scattered cloud deck in the morning should
limit potential. If this clears earlier than expected, fog is
certainly possible at KLND and KRIW, but low confidence in this
still precludes mentioning in the TAF.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dziewaltowski
AVIATION...Myers


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