Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 021803 AAA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1203 PM MDT TUE JUN 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WATER IS FLOWING AT BANKFULL TO JUST ABOVE FLOOD STAGE ALONG
PORTIONS OF THE WIND RIVER...BIG HORN RIVER...AND MANY OTHER
SMALL TRIBUTARIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

JUST A FEW SHOWERS LEFT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS DEMONSTRATE SOME DECENT INSTABILITY
WITH THESE STORMS...AND NATIONAL CENTERS HAVE INCLUDED AREAS OF
JOHNSON COUNTY AND THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN IN A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. HAVE INCLUDED WORDING FOR DAMAGING WIND IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT DOES LOOK TO BE A CONCERN FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA HAS MENTION FOR GUSTY WIND
WITH SMALL HAIL WITH ANY ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. STORM
ACTIVITY COULD AGAIN LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH INSTABILITY
SHOWN THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT.

THE TREND FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
WEDNESDAY. AGAIN NATIONAL CENTERS HAVE INCLUDED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WYOMING IN A SLIGHT RISK. MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE MORE LIMITED AS OF
THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...SO DID NOT INCLUDE ANY DAMAGING WIND OR
LARGE HAIL IN WITH ANTICIPATED THUNDERSTORMS. CURIOUS TO SEE HOW
MODELS CHANGE WITH RESPECT TO STORM COVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...RIGHT NOW THERE IS DECENT VARIATION BETWEEN THE SHORT
TERM MODELS. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
PRESENT ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY...MAINLY FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

WITH ONGOING STORM ACTIVITY AND DAYTIME CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH MANY CENTRAL
BASINS SEEING VALUES IN THE MID 70S INSTEAD OF THE LOW 80S. STORMS
WILL AGAIN PRODUCE AT LEAST THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL
HAIL.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
FRIDAY. A DECENT SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SURGE SOME
DECENT MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT IS A BIT SLOWER
AND NOT AS MOIST AS YESTERDAY. WILL KEEP POPS RELATIVELY HIGH
ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING AND OVER THE NORTH AS THE MOISTURE
INTERACTS WITH POSSIBLY A WEAK BOUNDARY EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS PROGGED TO SLOWLY PUSH
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS UPPER LOW THEN OPENS UP AND
FINALLY PULLS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES IN THE MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AND INTO THE PLAINS ON TUESDAY. DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AND A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WILL KEEP GOOD CHANCES OF CONVECTION GOING EACH DAY
WITH SOME ACTIVITY LINGERING WELL INTO THE NIGHT. DESPITE THE
SYSTEM BEING CLOSER TO THE AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE TRACK
TAKING IT OVER TO SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE AREA...MIGHT BRING IN A
BIT DRIER AIR AND DECREASE THE COVERAGE. WILL HAVE LOWER POPS...BUT
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE ENTIRE AREA COVERED WITH ISOLATED TO LOCALLY
SCATTERED CONVECTION BOTH DAYS.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST
WY AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 03Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING...BUT ANY STORMS
THAT DO FORM COULD PRODUCE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40KT. MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM AFTON
TO CASPER...WITH THE MOST VIGIROUS STORMS EXPECTED FROM A LINE
BETWEEN KCOD AND KAYCEE NORTH AND EAST...PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE
WIND GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS AND -GS TO GS BETWEEN 21Z AND 03Z. LOCAL
MVFR CONDITIONS AND MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

THE FOCUS OF ACTIVITY SHIFTS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS EXPECTED VCNTY KCPR KRIW KCPR KWRL WITH
WIND GUSTS OVER 50KT AND -GS TO GS AGAIN POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE TREND FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING WIND THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS
COULD PRODUCE PERIODS OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL...AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. WEAKER STORMS MAY HAVE SLIGHTLY WEAKER WIND...BUT THE
OTHER ATTRIBUTES WILL ALSO BE PRESENT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH DAYTIME HUMIDITY
REMAINING SLIGHTLY ELEVATED DUE TO ONGOING MOISTURE.&&

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM....WM
AVIATION...TEAM RIVERTON



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