Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 050529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1126 PM MDT FRI JUL 4 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY (ISSUED AT 258 PM)

A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS TODAY. THE FAVORED
AREAS WILL BE THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH SOME
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ALSO SEEING A SHOWER THREAT. SHOWERS WILL LOSE
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE WITH LOSS OF DAYLIGHT...WITH WIDESPREAD DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO FULL CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
NUMEROUS LOCATIONS WILL COME CLOSE TO THE 100 DEGREE MARK.
ADDITIONALLY...PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL BE FOUND...ESPECIALLY OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING. AT TIMES...IT COULD FEEL A BIT LIKE A
FURNACE BLOWING FOR THOSE PEOPLE ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER WEST ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY...LEADING TO A SLIGHTLY MORE TEMPERATE DAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL REMAIN HOT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
WEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT...MODELS ADVERTISE A DRY COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH OUT
OF MONTANA. THE FRONT WILL BRING A WIND SHIFT AND SOME HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY BUT LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION.

AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO TREK WESTWARD...HEIGHTS LOWER OVER OUR
AREA AND ALLOW MORE INFLUENCE FROM THE WAVES PASSING TO THE
NORTH...WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY LEAD TO SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION
AGAIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY AND AGAIN EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ALONG AND BEHIND THE
FRONT.

DESPITE THIS QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE AVERAGE EAST. WEST OF THE DIVIDE...MORE INFLUENCED BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OF 5-10 DEGREES ARE
EXPECTED EACH DAY.

TOWARD THE END OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THERE ARE HINTS OF A MORE
SIGNIFICANT TROUGH DIGGING ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...WHICH SHOULD
DISLODGE THE RIDGE AND KICK THE BOUNDARY OUT OF THE AREA. BEYOND
THE FORECAST PERIOD IT LOOKS LIKE A MONSOON PATTERN SETTING UP
RETURNING US RIGHT BACK TO A WETTER PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR/NSW CONDITIONS WITH UNLIMITED CIGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 20Z
SATURDAY.  ISOLD -TSRA/-SHRA IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY VCNTY AND S-E OF A KCPR-KLND-KRKS
LINE.  THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE MICROBURST WIND...ERRATIC WIND GUST 35-45KTS.  OTHERWISE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WY DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH W-NW SFC WIND 10-20KT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC WINDS SHIFTING
MORE NORTHERLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY THROUGH THE EVENING.
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY
EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AFTER A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA TAPER OFF THIS EVENING...DRY AND
HOT CONDITIONS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH
THE 100 DEGREE MARK ON SATURDAY...WITH HUMIDITY DECREASING INTO THE
LOW TEENS. PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL BE PRESENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THESE CONDITIONS AND CRITICALLY DRY
FUELS WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUATION OF THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR
NATRONA AND SOUTHERN JOHNSON COUNTIES. A BIT OF RELIEF WILL BE FOUND
ON SUNDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SLIGHTLY INCREASED
DAYTIME HUMIDITY. EVEN AREAS OUTSIDE OF THE RED FLAG AREA COULD SEE
AN INCREASE IN FIRE BEHAVIOR SHOULD ANY FIRES BEGIN OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY WYZ280-281.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM










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