Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 170813
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
213 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

THE MAINLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT OVER MONTANA HAS BROUGHT A FEW
CLOUDS TO NORTHERN WYOMING BUT AS OF NOW THAT IS ABOUT IT. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL PROGRESS THROUGH IDAHO AND BRING ANOTHER PERIOD OF
MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO THE AREA TODAY BUT AGAIN IMPACTS LOOK
MINIMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMAL ONCE AGAIN...MAYBE A
DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. IT IS THE SAME STORY FOR
SATURDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS BUT AGAIN LITTLE OR NO
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. WITH FLOW BECOMING WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS WITH 70S A
GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS. THIS
COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY VIEWING AREA...BUT NOTHING OUT OF
THE ORDINARY. RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE STATE FOR
SUNDAY AND BRING MORE SUNSHINE THEN THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AND THE
CONTINUATION OF MILD TEMPERATURES. THE MODELS DO SHOW A BIT OF
MOISTURE TRYING TO CREEP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ALL OF
THEM KEEP IT ACROSS COLORADO. ONCE AGAIN...A FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL
WEATHER PATTERN.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A TROUGH WILL PUSH INTO THE WEST COAST MONDAY. THIS TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SPLIT...WITH THE BULK OF THE ENERGY SHIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES TUESDAY...AND INTO
SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY AROUND 12Z WEDNESDAY. AT THE SAME...SOME
WEAKER ENERGY WILL BE SLOWER TO MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SPLITTING NATURE OF THE TROUGH...AND
THE MAIN ENERGY REMAINING NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA IS LOWERING
CONFIDENCE ON PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THIS TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM IS
ALSO RELATIVELY WARM...WITH ANY PRECIPITATION FALLING AS VALLEY
RAIN/MOUNTAIN SNOW ABOVE 9-10 KFT. IT LOOKS LIKE THE MAIN IMPACT
WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS TUESDAY...BUT NOT NEARLY AS WINDY AS
WHAT OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AFTER A COOLER DAY AND PERHAPS SOME LINGERING PRECIP
WEDNESDAY...UPPER RIDGING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RULE THROUGH 12Z/SAT. SHORTWAVE IN MONTANA WILL
DIVE SOUTHEAST WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE. THIS FLOW
PATTERN WILL BACK TO THE WEST AS RIDGE AXIS TO OUR WEST REACHES THE
WESTERN WYOMING BORDER BY 00Z/SAT. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN
10KTS. EASTERLY SURFACE WIND AT KCPR WILL SLOWLY COME AROUND TO THE
PREDOMINANT SOUTHWEST DIRECTION BETWEEN 06Z-12Z/SAT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COUPLE OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SOME MID TO
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL BREEZY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







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