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000
FXUS65 KRIW 270932
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

A PUSH OF MOISTURE MOVING IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SOME LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING TODAY. THE VERY WEAK
DISTURBANCE USHERING THIS MOISTURE PUSH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA
BY SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO WARM
SLIGHTLY...THOUGH WILL STILL REMAIN COOL.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL DIVE SOUTH
ON SATURDAY...ARRIVING OVER CALIFORNIA SATURDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES SOUTH IT WILL BRING COOLING TEMPERATURES...AND SEND ADDITIONAL
PULSES OF MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. THE BEST OF THESE PULSES
IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND WILL
PRIMARILY IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY WITH PRECIPITATION LINGERING OVER SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT...THOUGH MODELS DO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING DURING THE LATE EVENING
HOURS OF SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MAIN CHANGE FOR TONIGHT ARE THE MODELS NOT SHOWING AS MUCH ENERGY
DIGGING INTO THE GREAT BASIN/INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AS LAST NIGHT. MORE SHEARING OR JUST OVERALL LESS ENERGY.
THE SYSTEM THE MODELS TRACK FROM KAMCHATKA YESTERDAY IS STILL THE
SAME BUT THE END SOLUTION IS JUST DIFFERENT. STILL LOOKS LIKE SNOW
SPREADING S AND SE ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AND TURNING SHARPLY COLDER. SOME FAIRLY DECENT QG FORCING MAY
COMBINE WITH SOME INITIAL RRQ JET DYNAMICS MONDAY NIGHT AND THEN
LEFT EXIT REGION ON TUE WITH THE NEXT JET APPROACHING. WITH LESS
ENERGY TO THE WEST...MOVEMENT IS FASTER AND NOW WE MAY ACTUALLY
CLEAR BY WEDNESDAY MORNING LEADING TO SOME BITTER COLD LOWS. A
COLD COUPLE DAYS THOUGH FOR TUE AND WED. ON THE PLUS SIDE...THE
RIDGE FLATTENS MORE QUICKLY WITH A RATHER FAST MODERATION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY ON THE GFS. BACK TRACKING A LITTLE...THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM ENERGY LINGERS JUST TO THE SOUTH TO START THIS PERIOD
MONDAY WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS AND MAYBE EVEN SOME
VERY LIGHT PCPN IN OUR FAR SRN ZONES. OTHERWISE... DETERIORATING
CONDS BEGINNING LATER MONDAY ONWARD WITH OUR AFOREMENTIONED MONDAY
NIGHT/TUE SYSTEM FAST APPROACHING. RIGHT AT THE END OF THE MEDIUM
RANGE PERIOD...THE MODELS DIVERGE AS TO THE HANDLING OF A PIECE OF
ENERGY CURRENTLY COMING OFF THE ASIA COAST. THE GFS BRINGS IT
FURTHER OVER THE RIDGE AND INTO THE NRN PLAINS WHILE THE EURO
BRINGS THIS SHORTWAVE AT A LITTLE LOWER LATITUDE ALLOWING IT TO
DIG SE INTO OUR AREA NEXT FRIDAY NIGHT. KEEPING IT DRY FOR NOW.
THE GFS WOULD HAVE A MUCH NICER DAY ON FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
ALREADY DIGGING THE LOW TOWARDS US WITH FALLING TEMPS BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR
FLURRIES UNTIL 13Z. AFTER 13Z VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
00Z. CLOUDS WILL LOWER OVER NORTHERN WY AFTER 00Z WITH AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW. AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...FROM KLND TO KCPR...AREAS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST WY WHERE LOWER CLOUDS AND
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES WILL OCCUR THROUGH 14Z. LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. CONDITIONS IN SOUTHWEST WY WILL IMPROVE TO
VFR BY 17Z AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY. AFTER
06Z SATURDAY AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT SNOW.

FOR THE KJAC TERMINAL SITE VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH 16Z.
THEN MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AROUND 18Z THROUGH 08Z SATURDAY AS
LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPS OVER NORTHWEST WY BY 18Z AND CONTINUES THROUGH
09Z SATURDAY. EXPECT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION AT TIMES IN NW WY THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A SOMEWHAT BUSY FORECAST PERIOD ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA AS A
DISTURBANCES MOVES ACROSS THE AREA IN THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW.
AFTER A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN COOL
SATURDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE PACIFIC
COASTLINE. AS THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...IT WILL SPREAD ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...WITH SOUTHERN WYOMING
EXPERIENCING THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM