Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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313
FXUS65 KRIW 121733
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1033 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

MOISTURE WITHIN THE APPROACHING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY...WITH SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE.
OTHERWISE... ANOTHER FAIRLY WARM DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. MOST
MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA WILL FADE BY THIS EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD
DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE STATE. AS THE AXIS PASSES...FLOW WILL SHIFT TO BECOME MORE WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY. A SERIES OF WAVE ARE THEN ANTICIPATED WITHIN THIS
FLOW...WITH THE FIRST WAVES EXPECTED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO RECEIVE THE MAJORITY
OF MOISTURE...THOUGH THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE IS THEN EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH
MODELS DEMONSTRATING ANOTHER STRONGER PUSH OF MOISTURE BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. THESE MOISTURE PUSHES WILL RESULT IN POSSIBLE SNOWFALL
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND VALLEYS...AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SOME
ACTIVITY MAY REACH INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING..BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT AND QUICK.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WILL COOL ON SUNDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE
GREATER MOISTURE PUSH.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

MOIST...UPGLIDE NW FLOW CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH SNOW LIKELY OUT
WEST WITH A POSSIBLE MIXTURE IN THE VALLEYS DURING THE DAY MONDAY.
QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN THE W-NW FAVORED AREAS AS STRONG FLOW
COMBINES WITH LEE TROUGHING AND SEVERAL RIPPLES IN THE FLOW. RIDGE
AXIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE A LITTLE CLOSER TUESDAY SHUTTING OFF ANY
SIGNIFICANT PCPN CHANCES TO THE WEST. STILL BREEZY TO WINDY BUT
LESS THAN MONDAY. MID LEVEL TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH WEDNESDAY POSSIBLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY AS RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD OR SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST WITH GOOD MIXING WITH BREEZY TO
WINDY AREAS. BOTH THE GFS AND EURO ARE SHOWING AT LEAST +3C AT H7
IN CENTRAL WYO ON WEDNESDAY. AS LONG AS THE LEE CLOUDS AREN`T TOO
THINK...WE`LL SEE PLENTY OF 50S AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPOTS TOUCHING
60. THICK LEE ENHANCED CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN THING THAT WE`LL
HAVE TO WATCH WHEN WE GET CLOSER. LONGWAVE RIDGE STARTS TO REBUILD
LATE IN THE WEEK BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT
SYSTEM IMPACTING THE AREA THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO FRIDAY.
SYSTEM MAY END UP WEAKER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE BUT STILL
ENOUGH TO SPREAD SNOW INTO THE WEST AND VALLEY RAIN/SNOW. PLENTY
OF TIME TO SEE HOW THIS SHAPES UP AS THE SYSTEM IS STILL OVER ERN
ASIA THIS MORNING. OVERALL THOUGH...WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE FOR MOST AREAS WITH THE MTNS...WIND CORRIDOR AND
CODY FOOTHILLS HAVING WINDY PERIODS. THE DUBOIS TO RIVERTON AREA
MAY ALSO HAVE A WINDY PERIOD ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY
EXPECT 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH 30S AND 40S WEST WITH
WEDNESDAY THE OVERALL WARMEST DAY FOR MOST AREAS. THE EAST MAY
STAY MILD THROUGH THURSDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF OUR THU/FRI
SYSTEM WITH A COOLER DAY NEXT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS EXCEPT KJAC AND KAFO
WHERE LOW STRATUS CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN FOG WILL
PRODUCE AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FROM 09Z SATURDAY TO 18Z
SATURDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND 02Z SATURDAY.
LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR IN THIS AREA ALONG WITH HIGHER
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE AREA
OVER THE NEXT DAYS. GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTY WIND REACHING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WIND WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE EACH DAYS. INCREASING WIND WILL AID
THE SMOKE DISPERSAL ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAINLY ONLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. OTHERWISE...PERIODS OF SNOWFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A FEW
LOCATIONS WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM



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