Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 241007
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE
ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE BIGHORN RANGE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
MVFR -SN MAINLY VCNTY AND EAST OF A KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE THROUGH
15Z.  DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN AND
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS SHIFTING INTO SW WY THROUGH 15Z.  DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR -SN WILL EXIT
SW WY BY 15Z.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE 08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









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