Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 171028
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
428 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Tranquil weather through the middle of the week, with warmer
  temperatures.

- Next system details still uncertain, but becoming more likely
  to disrupt the latter half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 131 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

The well-defined block pattern remains stalled across the
western US, and will dominate the weather across western WY
through the middle of the upcoming week. Today will see
temperatures similar to Saturday as partly cloudy skies and
light northerly flow continue to draw slightly cooler air
southward from Canada. The core of the warmer air aloft arrives
tomorrow, with H7 temperatures +1 to +3C, which will translate
to sfc temperatures soaring into the 60s east of the divide.
Areas west of the divide will push into the lower 50s, but are
still hindered by remaining snowpack.

Models and ensembles still point to the blocking feature rapidly
breaking down starting Wednesday. Starting to get a little more
confident that the timing of change for Wyoming happening
Wednesday night into Thursday, with westerly flow establishing
across the state bringing more Pacific moisture. Most
precipitation would be confined to the mountainous areas, but
any enhancement from passing shortwaves would bring the
potential for light rain into the lower elevations. This patter
looks to continue through next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 427 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Northerly flow will continue through this afternoon, with a weak
boundary bringing a wind shift to most terminals this
evening/tonight. This northerly flow will keep SCT to BKN050-080
clouds at terminals, especially east of the Continental Divide.
Isolated snow showers are expected as well, so have prevailing VCSH
at KCPR/KLND through this morning. Some isolated rain showers
are possible this afternoon, but confidence remains too low for
a prevailing group of VCSH beyond 18Z. The strongest wind is
expected at KRKS this afternoon, with northeasterly wind gusts
of 20 to 25 knots. All other terminals are expected to remain
below 15 knots through the TAF period. Mountaintop obscuration
will occur at times this morning.

Please see the Aviation Weather Center and/or CWSU ZDV and ZLC for
the latest information on icing and turbulence forecasts.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Straub
AVIATION...Rowe


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