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000
FXUS65 KRIW 301708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATELLITE LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY
ACDG TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER
NORTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY
KEEPING US UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WY WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR
NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH VCTS. DURING THE
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON