Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 250440
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
1040 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dry cool northwest flow aloft will gradually warm and pick up some
Pacific moisture with time as a large high pressure ridge over the
great basin moves north into the region.  Monday will warm into the
upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower elevations with some limited
showers and thunderstorms developing in the northern mountains.
Tuesday will see more moisture with increasing showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the northern and western mountains. Winds
will become breezy to windy Monday and Tuesday with west to
southwest winds becoming gusty in the afternoons.  The strongest
winds are expected over and near the east slopes of the mountains.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

The long wave ridge currently along the Pacific Coast will deamplify
as a shortwave trough travels east across the Western United States
and  the long wave trough currently over the midwest next week. The
shortwave trough will come through in several pieces over the course
of next week as it travels east across the Northern Rockies. The
Euro keeps the flow the least amplified with the GFS the most
amplified and the Canadian somewhere in the middle but the timing of
the models are more or less the same. The lead shortwave will be
exiting Wyoming Tuesday evening for lingering convection across the
northern tier of Wyoming. Then another round of convection is
expected Wednesday as the next piece of energy tracks across the
region. The best instability Wednesday should be in Western Wyoming
as the axis of this feature tracks across the area late in the day.
Wednesday will see h7 temps as high as 13.5C Wednesday and will
decrease to 3.5C in Northern Wyoming by Thursday when the main axis
of the shortwave trough tracks on through. Thursday will see the
apex of moisture covering northern and central Wyoming asct with
next weeks troughiness. In fact, there is a hint of a weak mid level
circulation tracking east across Northern Wyoming Thursday. Thursday
will see the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms across
northern and central Wyoming of the week. Then on Friday,
troughiness lingers over the region with the final ripple in the
flow riding southeast along the backside of the main shortwave
trough Saturday. Expect another round of mostly late day convection
Friday before convection tapes off Saturday as the ridge to the west
reestablishes itself to the west. High temperatures will slowly
decrease through the 70s east of the divide Wednesday behind the
asct cold front, and then approach 80 by Saturday with high temps in
the west in the 70s Wednesday, 60s Thursday and Friday, and then the
70s Saturday. Increased clouds and showers should make Thursday the
coolest day of the week overall.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday)
Issued at 1040 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

VFR conditions will occur through 06Z Monday. Wind speeds will be
less than 12 knots through the period. Very isolated showers may
occur over the mountains from 23Z Sunday through 02Z Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued AT 210 PM MDT Sat Jun 24 2017

Dry cool northwest flow aloft will gradually warm and pick up some
Pacific moisture with time as a large high pressure ridge over the
great basin moves north into the region.  Monday will warm into the
upper 80s to mid 90s in the lower elevations with some limited
showers and thunderstorms developing in the northern mountains.
Tuesday will see more moisture with increasing showers and
thunderstorms mainly over the northern and western mountains. Winds
will become breezy to windy Monday and Tuesday with west to
southwest winds becoming gusty in the afternoons.  The strongest
winds are expected over and near the east slopes of the mountains.
The lower air mass will be unstable enough with sufficient wind for
very good to excellent smoke dispersal from late morning to mid
evening each day.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Baker
LONG TERM...Lipson
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...Baker



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