Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 100805

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
205 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night) Issued at 136 AM MDT
Tue Oct 10 2017

A Positively tilted ridge will be building in from the west today
along with temperatures inversions this morning. This is often
times a good pattern for radiation fog, however dew points appear
too low for favorable fog development. Many areas have had a day
to dry out after Sunday and Sunday night`s precip event. Will just
keep a mention of patchy fog in the Northeast portion of the Wind
River basin where dew points could be higher around the vcnty of
Boysen Reservoir. Other local areas near warmer bodies of water
could see patchy fog this morning as well. Otherwise expect a
pleasantly cool dry fall day today all areas with relatively light

On Wednesday, the next Pacific trough will rapidly make landfall
onto the Pacific Coast, with our flow backing to the southwest
and increasing in response to the tightening gradient ahead of
this approaching system. As a result, southwest winds will
increase from the I-80 corridor to Casper Wednesday, with these
winds ushering in milder air into the area. Highs will warm to
near 70 at many lower elevations east of the divide with 50s in
the far west valleys. The trough will graze our northern zones
with only spotty precip in the northern portion of YNP late
Thursday. This trough will swing a Pacific cold front across the
area with highs on Thursday dropping to the 50s east and 40s west.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 136 AM MDT Tue
Oct 10 2017

Shortwave in the southwest flow may overrun lingering front
across our nern zones resulting in a chance of light rain or snow
on Friday. Our digging trough is still poised to move into the
west Friday night and across us on Saturday. Models are struggling
on timing and strength but this system could be a potent little
system if the stronger solutions work out (and with the mean
trough still over the inter-mountain west that is not out of the
question). System is moving across ern Siberia and will have a
good amount of cold air to work with. Not out of the question to
get a quick shot of snow showers along its path across the lower
elevations. Need to see a little better model convergence before
hitting the area too hard (procedure pops were almost non-
existent). Systems exits by early Sunday with a cool day quite
likely. Shortwave ridging and rapidly warming temperatures then
arrive for Monday and Tuesday with little chance of any
precipitation. H7 temps warm dramatically with to between 5 and
7C east of the divide and even above zero west of the divide.
Areas that mix will rebound quickly. Warmed up may locations
Monday into Tuesday but not as warm as it could be. Even the
MEX/ECE guidance were a lot higher than the procedure temps.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

VFR conditions will occur through the period. A gusty wind will
occur at KCPR today and tonight.


Issued AT 136 AM MDT Tue Oct 10 2017

High pressure will build over the area today through Wednesday.
Conditions will be dry with cold nights and cool days with a
gradual warming trend. Southwest winds will be on the increase on
Wednesday and Thursday across southwest and central areas and
along and near the east slopes of the mountains where warming will
be greatest. Some rain and snow showers, mainly snow above 7500
feet will move into the northwest Thursday afternoon. The lower
air mass will be rather stable with temperature inversions
especially over the western valleys where poor to fair smoke
dispersal will be prevalent. The best mixing will be in the
windier areas along and near the east slopes of the mountains and
across the southwest and central areas as winds increase with the
best chances for good smoke dispersal. |




LONG TERM...Skrbac
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