Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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FXUS65 KRIW 252045
AFDRIW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Riverton WY
245 PM MDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...Tonight Through Tuesday

A pacific low pressure trough with an area of enhanced mid level
winds will pass over the area through the evening. Very dry air
is over the area with deep mixing. There is enough moisture to
form very isolated high based showers and thunderstorms with wind
gusts of 55 mph. A red flag warning remains in effect through 9
pm mdt for fire weather zones 280 283 285 287 and 288. A cold
front will come south later tonight and end up along the
continental divide by early morning. Afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will form over and near the northern
mountains spreading south into central wyoming.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday Through Monday

a series of cold fronts will move south each night through the
week enhancing the low level moisture up along the continental
divide.  areas over and near the mountains will see increasing
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. the far south
will also continue to see increasing shower and thunderstorms.
over the weekend and early next week some monsoon moisture
will move into the west and southwest.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

Medium range period shows the mean upper high moving wwd from the
KS/OK/N TX region on Thursday wwd to Ern CA/NV area by Monday.
Limited monsoonal moisture is still around the sern zones on
Thursday before a shortwave passes through the Nrn Rockies Friday
pushing drier air in from the west. We might get a secondary sewd
moving shortwave moving into the Nrn High Plains Saturday which may
serve to push some wwd by Sunday. Will add in some isold storms in
Johnson County for starters and see how the pattern looks again
tonight. Models vary on where that Saturday shortwave will end up
being with the GFS further north in MT and the ECMWF further south
with some impact in Nrn Wyo. The GFS also has a sewd moving
shortwave on Sunday that moves right through the area but with
limited moisture. We always have to watch sewd moving shortwaves in
the nw flow so we`ll just have to see how this pattern evolves over
the next couple days. Right now the end of the period, Monday, looks
warm and dry. Temps start out quite hot and then cool a few degrees
Friday into Saturday then rebound slightly for most areas Sunday
into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A pacific low pressure trough with an area of enhanced mid level
winds will pass over the area through the evening. Very dry air
is over the area with deep mixing. There is enough moisture to
form very isolated high based showers and thunderstorms with wind
gusts of 55 mph. A red flag warning remains in effect through 9
pm mdt for fire weather zones 280 283 285 287 and 288. A cold
front will come south later tonight and end up along the
continental divide by early morning. Afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms will form over and near the northern
mountains spreading south into central wyoming.

&&

.RIW Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for WYZ280-283-285-
287-288.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.Baker
LONG TERM...C.Baker
AVIATION...Skrbac
FIRE WEATHER...C.Baker


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