Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 280547 CCA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1146 PM MDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT)

MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NEAR MUDDY GAP AT MIDDAY WITH UPPER
CIRCULATION OVER NERN UT MOVING INTO FAR NWRN CO. IMPRESSIVE VWP
SOUNDING TODAY WITH NE FLOW IN THE MID LEVELS AND SE UPPER FLOW.
BAROCLINIC SHIELD OF PCPN MOVED NWWD ALL THE WAY INTO LND AND THE
EDGE OF RIW WITH .14 INCHES OF RAIN IN LANDER BETWEEN 11 AND NOON
AND ANOTHER .05 BETWEEN NOON AND 1 PM. CAMP CREEK RAWS NEAR MUDDY
GAP REPORTED .83 INCHES OF RAIN THIS MORNING (0.85 NOW). EVEN
SOUTH PASS CITY WAS NEARING THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AS OF 1PM.
MANY AREAS OVER NERN SWEETWATER COUNTY...SERN/ERN FREMONT AND
WRN/NRN NATRONA HAVE ALSO LIKELY RECEIVED AROUND A HALF OF AN INCH
THIS MORNING WITH RAIN ONGOING. EVEN RIVERTON IS GETTING
MEASURABLE RAIN WITH 0.03 AS OF 130 PM TODAY. CIRCULATION WILL
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP LATER TODAY AND THEN MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
SHIFTING SEWD. SHORTWAVE RIDGING THEN MOVES IN FOR A DRY AND WARMER
THURSDAY. BL LOOKS MOIST LATE TONIGHT SO COULD DEFINITELY SEE LOW
CLOUDS AND OR FOG IN OUR SERN ZONES WHERE LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT
RAINFALL HELP OUT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE TROUGH THAT IS GIVING SOUTHERN AND EAST CENTRAL WYOMING RAIN
TODAY WILL BE EXITING EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN
A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE WILL BE SCOOTING RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS MONTANA
FRIDAY. THE FLOW OVER WYOMING SOUTH OF THIS SHORTWAVE WILL BE
WESTERLY AND SLIGHTLY DIFLUENT. THE LIFT FROM THIS SHORTWAVE WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH IN MONTANA. HIGHER CAPES ARE PROGGED FOR JOHNSON
COUNTY FRIDAY ALONG WITH JUST SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES.
MARGINAL AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE ARE PROGGED FOR FAR NORTHERN WY FRIDAY
WITH MOST OF THE 500-700MB MOISTURE REMAINING UP IN MONTANA. WENT
WITH JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MTNS FOR FRIDAY AS WELL
AS IN THE WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS.

THE GFS HAS COME MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF IN THAT IT IS BRINGING
A SHORTWAVE/COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON MONDAY
ALONG WITH THE ASCT LONG WAVE TROUGH TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY. HAVE
KEPT WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
AREA FOP SATURDAY ASCT WITH THE SHORTWAVE...ESP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
IN THE NORTHWEST. ELSEWHERE ON SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT...WARM...BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED...ESPECIALLY
FROM RKS TO CPR...WHERE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL LIKELY BE SOMEWHAT
ELEVATED. IN FACT...SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S EXPECTED AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF
THE DIVIDE AND 70S WEST. H7 TEMPS BEHIND THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT WILL
DROP TO NEAR ZERO IN NORTHERN WY BY SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BRING THE
SNOW LEVEL DOWN TO 8500 FEET IN THE NORTHERN MTNS. MAINLY SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED FOR COVERAGE SUNDAY WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH.
SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ANYWHERE IS
EXPECTED AFTER SATURDAY WITH THE STABILIZING AIR MASS...MAINLY JUST
SHOWERS. WITH A CONTINUED WESTERLY...SOMEWHAT MOIST PACIFIC
FLOW...STILL EXPECTING SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HIGHEST FAR NW
MTNS TUESDAY. THIS WESTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN JUST DRY CONDITIONS
IN MOST AREAS OF THE CWA TUESDAY. THEN BY WEDNESDAY...THE WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STRONG CUT OFF
LOW DIVING DOWN SOUTHEAST INTO THE PAC NW WHICH WILL RESULT IN ISOLD
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE NW MTNS AS THE FASTER MORE FALL
LIKE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST INTO
NE COLORADO EARLY THIS MORNING.  ISOLD TO WDLY SCT -SHRA VCNTY AND
SOUTH OF A KCPR-KRKS LINE WILL DIMINISH THROUGH 9Z.  PATCHY FOG AND
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL PARTIALLY OBSCURE TERRAIN VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A
KCPR-KRIW-KBPI LINE THROUGH 14Z.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION ON THURSDAY WITH
SFC-BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS MAINLY OUT OF THE NW AT AROUND 10KTS.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SPREAD WDLY SCT -SHRA AND ISOLD
-TSRA INTO THE NW MTNS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF A KJAC-KCOD LINE...LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST
PRIMARILY VCNTY AND NORTH OF KCOD-KBYG OVERNIGHT WITH CIGS
FL120-150.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE WYOMING AND COLORADO BORDER
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING.
MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT THE SERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA...THOUGH SOME AREAS OF NORTHERN WYOMING WILL SEE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
THURSDAY WILL BE WARMER AND DRIER BUT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT WINDS. A
WEAK SYSTEM WILL PASS ACROSS THE NORTH ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC












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