Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 192116
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
316 PM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ELONGATED UPPER LOW JUST TO OUR SOUTH STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL
WEAKEN BUT MOVE TOWARDS THE RED DESERT EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
MOVE EVER SO SLOWLY EWD TOWARDS CASPER MOUNTAIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. A
SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO FAR
SWRN WYOMING BY THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING BACK TO
THE WEST. WCB/UPGLIDE IN MOIST ELY FLOW WILL KEEP STEADY PCPN GOING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS WITH SOME MODERATE LOWER ELEVATION RAIN AT
TIMES AND HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW. AS THE LOW GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND
FILLS...THE WIDESPREAD PCPN WILL START TO WEAKEN AND RETREAT TO
MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN STILL HOLDING ON
ACROSS SOME OF CENTRAL WYO. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE AROUND BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AND THEN BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...THE NEXT SYSTEM IS ALREADY MOVING TOWARDS CA WITH
DEVELOPING DIFFLUENT FLOW AND APPROACHING JET FOR WRN WYO. DAYTIME
HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO PLENTY OF SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SMALL HAIL OUT WEST WED AFTN. LOOKS GENERALLY DRY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXCEPT PERHAPS THE MOUNTAINS. SNOW LEVELS ARE
QUITE LOW RIGHT NOW BETWEEN 6K AND 7K AND MAY EVEN LOWER FURTHER
BRIEFLY AT TIMES TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER A BRIEF BREAK IN THE WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY...THE WET MAY PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
UPCOMING EXTENDED PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. LOOKS LIKE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE AGAIN BY FRIDAY. WILL BETTER
PINPOINT PRECIPITATION AREAS AND AMOUNTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
WEEKEND...BUT CONTINUITY SUGGESTS WET CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BRING WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RAIN
WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW AND AREAS OF FOG THROUGH AT LEAST 06Z WED.
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
15Z WED WITH CONTINUED AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION
SNOW. MOUNTAINS WILL BE FREQUENTLY OBSCURED. AFTER 06Z WED...WEST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL SEE LESS PRECIPITATION AREAS OF FOG WILL FORM
IF PARTIAL CLEARING OCCURS. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TAF SITES FOR
MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER RELATIVELY LOW INTO WEDNESDAY AS SEASONAL TO COOL AND
RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST. LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF WYOMING TODAY AND BRING A WETTING RAIN TO MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE STATE. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT.
IT WILL DRY OUT SOMEWHAT FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND WEST.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT WEDNESDAY WYZ009-015.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PS
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...PS
FIRE WEATHER...PS




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