Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 190844
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
244 AM MDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

PRETTY QUIET THROUGH MONDAY AS A RIDGE PASSES OVERHEAD. UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH ON
TUESDAY AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL CREATE A WINDY DAY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SOME RAIN...AND SNOW ABOVE 7KFT
RISING TO ABOUT 8.5KFT IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS BUT SOME RAIN WILL BE SPILLING ACROSS THE SOUTH AND INTO
SOME AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THIS WILL NOT BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN
OR SNOW PRODUCER BUT IT WILL COOL THINGS OFF A BIT...INCREASE CLOUD
COVER AND WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...COOLER BUT SEASONABLY MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ON
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH SOME LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS
ACROSS MAINLY EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTY.  A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRING DRY AND UNSEASONABLY MILD WEATHER TO THE AREA THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE WEST EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING AND ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING DURING THE DAY.  ECMWF
AND CANADIAN SHOW A DRIER AND WARMER AIRMASS OVER THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THE GFS WITH H7 TEMPS RECOVERING TO NEAR
+4C EAST OF THE DIVIDE VERSUS GFS AROUND 0C.  THE WARMER SOLUTION
WOULD RESULT IN TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S (SOME
COLD FRONT!) ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASINS WHILE GFS WOULD BE 8-10F
COOLER.  FORECAST REFLECTS AN EVEN BLEND OF THESE SOLUTIONS.

BLOCKY PATTERN EMERGES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH UPPER HIGH
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND UPPER TROUGHS ALONG OR NEAR
THE COASTS.  GFS ATTEMPTS TO BRING UPSTREAM TROUGH INTO THE WEST
COAST ON SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS IT OFF SHORE THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.  THE SLOWER PROGRESSION PER ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE
OUR PREFERENCE.  HIGH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO BE 10-15F ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS WHILE CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WIND AT NIGHT RESULT IN GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LARGE
DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES.



&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING CONDITIONS AT
ALL TERMINALS VFR WITH SURFACE WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS THROUGH
06Z/MON. UPPER FLOW WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH MID/HIGH CLOUDS MAKING A RETURN TO SOUTHWEST
WYOMING. KCPR SURFACE WIND WILL GO SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS BETWEEN
06Z-12Z/MON IN RESPONSE TO THE BACKING FLOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER IS LOW...AND WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH MONDAY
ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AS SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND
LOW WIND SPEEDS CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS. WHILE RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES MAY DIP INTO THE LOWER 20S OR EVEN UPPER TEENS AT
TIMES...WINDS SPEEDS WILL REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE...HELPING TO AVOID
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. HOWEVER...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE ON TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM. CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH
ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THE WEST AND ACROSS RAWLINS
DISPATCH...WITH A LOW CHANCE EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...CNJ
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN







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