Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Riverton, WY

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000
FXUS65 KRIW 150515
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 228 PM MDT)

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. WEST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS.  CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
DRY WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

AT MANY ISSUES THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL THE WEATHER AND BRING LARGELY WARM AND DRY
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB
INTO THE 80S FOR THE BASIN LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THE PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS
THE TROUGH AXIS BEGINS TO SHIFT A BIT FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE
ARRIVING THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POPPING UP
ACROSS AREAS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY
SPARSE AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MEANWHILE...EXPECT THE DRY AND WARM WEATHER TO CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

A COMBINATION OF THE RIDGE SHIFTING FURTHER EAST AND FLATTENING AND
INCREASING MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM HURRICANE ODILE MAY
INCREASE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON SPREADING THE MOISTURE FURTHER EASTWARD BUT MOISTURE
FROM TROPICAL SYSTEMS CAN BE REALLY FICKLE SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES
FOR THURSDAY. WITH A FRONT AND TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE AREA IT
STILL LOOKS LIKE FRIDAY SHOULD HAVE THE BEST COVERAGE OF POSSIBLE
CONVECTION. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE SO AGAIN WE MADE FEW
CHANGES AT THIS POINT. WITH MORE CLOUD COVER...EXPECT A COOLING
TREND FOR FRIDAY AS WELL. AS FOR NEXT WEEKEND...THERE CONTINUES TO
BE A LOT OF DISAGREEMENT IN THE MODELS SO FOR NOW ONCE AGAIN...FEW
CHANGES WERE MADE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS WILL OCCUR NEAR THE FAR SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FROM 21Z
MON UNTIL 02Z TUE. THE ACTIVITY WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A BUILDING AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT...WITH A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST BRINGING INCREASED
RELATIVE HUMIDITY. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP WARMING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS PRESENT WITH LITTLE WIND EXPECTED.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER/LIPSON

















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