National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

000
FLUS44 KTSA 160957
HWOTSA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
457 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
457 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...LIMITED.
AREA...FAR SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
ONSET...MID MORNING.

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE BACK INTO SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
THIS MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SLOWLY TRAVERSES THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW
STORMS TODAY COULD BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS...WITH QUARTER SIZE
HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWN BURST WINDS....PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MAXIMIZED. IN ADDITION...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD LEAD TO EXCESSIVE RUNOFF IN A FEW AREAS GIVEN
THE RECENT RAINS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDS.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE DRY LINE COULD MOVE INTO FAR
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING. ANY STORMS THAT
OCCUR WOULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT HOWEVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN WEST OF THE AREA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE SUNDAY AS A STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
WIND FIELDS ALOFT SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
INCLUDING THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES. IT APPEARS AT THIS TIME THAT
THE GREATEST LIKELY-HOOD FOR STORMS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL
ALSO BE A CONCERN AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO TUESDAY BEFORE THE
COLD FRONT FINALLY EXITS THE REGION.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PERSONS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF MULTIPLE ROUNDS
OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL SEVERAL
DAYS AWAY AND THE TIMING OF SPECIFIC THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
REFINED INTO THE WEEKEND.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.
$$