Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FLUS44 KTSA 161838
HWOTSA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
138 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-171045-
Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK-
Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK-
Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK-
Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK-
Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK-
Washington OK-Washington AR-
138 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2017


This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as
much of Eastern Oklahoma.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight.
TORNADO.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
 ONSET...Late Afternoon.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
RISK...Elevated.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Late Afternoon.

FLASH FLOOD.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

HEAVY RAIN.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DANGEROUS HEAT.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Parts of Eastern Oklahoma into West Central Arkansas.
ONSET...Ongoing.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
RISK...Limited.
AREA...Northeast Oklahoma.
ONSET...Ongoing.

DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to lift
northeast across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas this
afternoon. Instability and wind shear values over the region will
allow for limited severe weather potentials with locally damaging
winds and hail being the main threats. Additional thunderstorm
chances become likely late this afternoon...evening and into
overnight hours tonight across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas as storms are forecast to develop along a cold front
entering the region.

Instability interacting with the front will help to increase
severe potentials during the evening hours with a limited
potential remaining after midnight tonight. Damaging winds...large
hail and also a limited tornado potential will be possible
through the evening hours...with conditions becoming more of a
damaging wind threat after midnight tonight. Also...with
widespread moisture across the region...periods of heavy rainfall
will be possible which could create flash flooding conditions
especially over locations that have already received recent heavy
rains.

Across locations that remain dry through this afternoon...heat
index values in the upper 90s to near 105 degrees will be
possible. These conditions will decrease this evening with the
approaching cold front.


SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
Activation of the Regional Spotter Network Likely.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.
THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.
FRIDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential.
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Dangerous Heat
  Potential.
TUESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
Thunderstorm chances will remain in the forecast Thursday across
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas as the cold front makes
its way through the region. A limited severe potential could be
possible over far Southeast Oklahoma ahead of the front.
Additional thunderstorm chances return Friday as an upper level
low pressure system moves across the Plains. Periods of heavy
rainfall will again be possible Friday with this next system.

A more typical August weather pattern looks to set up over the
weekend and into the start of next week. This will allow for warm
and humid conditions along with small daytime thunderstorm
chances to be possible across Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest
Arkansas this weekend into early next week.

weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information.

$$


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