955
FXUS64 KEWX 231144
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
644 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Area radars and surface observations show a cold front pushing
southward into central Val Verde and northwestern Edwards county
early this morning. Some light showers have developed along this
boundary with a few showers noted farther south along the Rio Grande
near Del Rio. The hi-res models generally show the best chance for
rainfall today will remain confined to the central and northern
portions of Val Verde county as well as portions of northern Edwards
county. The chance for a strong to severe storm is low and we have
removed this from the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Rainfall amounts of
1/2"-1" are possible, along with some isolated amounts up to near
2". Again, most of this is expected to fall over rural areas of the
mentioned counties. Elsewhere, we will keep some low chances (20%)
for rain in the forecast for portions of the Hill Country this
morning as weak forcing along the front could aid in the development
of a few showers or storms. The leading edge of the front should
make some gradual southward progress into the Hill Country and
southern Edwards Plateau today and areas behind the front will see
some cooler temperatures with highs in the 80s. A few of the hi-res
models do show the leading edge of the front moving into portions of
the I-35 corridor near and north of Austin. This seems plausible and
we will continue to monitor and adjust the forecast as needed. Ahead
of the front, not much relief is anticipated and we will keep highs
in the lower to mid 90s. If the front drops a little farther
southward and clouds fill in behind the boundary, our current
forecast temperatures might be a little high.

For tonight, a few showers or storms may linger over portions of the
Hill Country to the nearby I-35 corridor, but overall prospects for
rain are low at this time. However, as an upper level trough axis
sags southward into the region on Tuesday, we should see a slight
increase in our rain chances along with a slight decrease in high
temperatures. For now, we will limit rain chances to 20-30% and
monitor trends of future model runs.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

The passage of an upper level short wave across the local area on
Tuesday evening brings chances for showers and thunderstorms across
portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill Country. As the
night progresses, a cold front is forecast to push across the Hill
Country and the southern Edwards Plateau on Wednesday morning. The
frontal boundary continues to push to the south with scattered
showers and thunderstorms along and behind it. By Wednesday mid
afternoon, the front is forecast to be across the Coastal Plains with
a dry air mass spreading in the wake of the boundary along with
cooler temperatures. Wednesday`s highs are forecast to range from the
mid 80s across the Hill Country to lower 90s across the Coastal
Plains. Look for upper 70s across the Hill Country by sunset as dry
and cooler northerly winds push across South Central Texas. Partly
cloudy skies to turn mostly clear with overnight lows in the upper
50s across the Hill Country and southern Edwards Plateau and mid to
upper 60s elsewhere.

Sunny skies and cooler temperatures are in store for South Central
Texas on Thursday and Friday with highs in the 80s to lower 90s.
Overnight lows in the 50s and 60s to start the day on Friday
morning and 60s to near 70 to begin the weekend on Saturday.

A nice weekend is forecast with sunny skies highs in the mid 80s to
mid 90s with a warm trend beginning on Sunday as highs reach the 90s
over most places.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024

Convection along the Rio Grande near Del Rio continues and we have
opted to add a TEMPO group through 15Z with MVFR conditions in -SHRA.
By late morning, most of the activity should gradually move north of
DRT, so will carry VCSH for now. Elsewhere, we will mention a TEMPO
group through mid-morning for MVFR conditions along the I-35
corridor. Confidence in MVFR is a little lower at AUS and the
forecast may need to be adjusted pending observations. VFR is
expected at all sites this afternoon and evening. Low cloud
development is anticipated overnight into Tuesday morning. For now,
we will mention MVFR at AUS as some lower cigs may filter in behind a
weak cold front. We will mention low clouds in the remainder of our
TAF sites, but keep bases VFR for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              95  73  94  70 /  10  20  30  30
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  94  73  94  69 /  10  20  30  30
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  74  95  70 /  10  10  30  40
Burnet Muni Airport            89  70  89  68 /  20  30  30  40
Del Rio Intl Airport           93  75  95  75 /  20  10  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        90  71  90  68 /  20  20  30  40
Hondo Muni Airport             94  73  94  71 /  10  10  20  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        95  72  94  69 /  10  20  30  40
La Grange - Fayette Regional   94  73  92  70 /  10  20  30  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       95  75  94  73 /  10  10  20  40
Stinson Muni Airport           96  76  95  74 /   0  10  20  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...17
Aviation...Platt