Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 070522
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1222 AM CDT Fri May 7 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR flying conditions prevail tonight through Friday evening with
only few cirrus passing overhead. Stratus with MVFR CIGs returns
Friday night. At the I-35 sites, variable mainly easterly to
northeasterly winds at less than 5 KTs become southeasterly at 10 to
15 KTs on Friday, then southerly Friday night. At KDRT, southeasterly
winds of 8 to 14 KTs increase to 12 to 20 KTs with gusts to 28 KTs
on Friday.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 302 PM CDT Thu May 6 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Clear and dry conditions continue today and tonight. Low temperatures
tonight are again forecast to be in the 50s to low 60s. A southeast
flow resumes areawide on Friday and strengthens in the afternoon.
High temperatures on Friday are forecast in the mid 80s to low 90s.
Low level moisture returns to the region Friday night, with low
stratus and a slight chance of some patchy drizzle developing into
early Saturday morning.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Humid and warm conditions are expected Saturday into early Sunday
with the hottest temps of the week likely to be on Sunday. This is
due to the eastward movement of a dry-line as a destabilizing zonal
flow pattern develops over Central TX. A few dry-line storms might
form and could approach severe levels based on marginal levels of
shear and CAPE. The majority of the storms will pass north of the
area, so some of the PoPs for Sunday afternoon/eve south of I-10 may
be reduced in later updates. Monday, models continue to depict a
cold front to arrive in the afternoon and evening and hang up over
the area with another chance of strong storms, again mainly focused
over northern counties. The consensus pulls the front through the
area by late Tuesday with probably the best chance of rain Tuesday
and Tuesday night. Specifics on severe threats or heavy rain will be
left vague as weak cold front behavior in early May are often tricky.
There does appear to be increasing signals that some locally heavy
downpours from organized storm complexes Monday night and Tuesday
night. Late Tuesday night behind the front into Wednesday night, PoPs
remain more elevated that should typically be expected as upper
dynamic depart and the front brings low level stability; thus a less
pessimistic forecast may be possible in future forecast updates.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              65  88  72  91  71 /   0  -   -   20  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  63  88  72  90  71 /   0  -   -   20  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     66  89  73  93  71 /   0  -   -   10  10
Burnet Muni Airport            65  86  71  88  66 /   0   0  10  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           69  94  72 101  70 /   0  -   10   0  -
Georgetown Muni Airport        64  88  71  90  68 /   0   0  10  20  20
Hondo Muni Airport             66  92  71  96  70 /   0   0  -   -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        64  88  72  91  70 /   0  -   -   10  10
La Grange - Fayette Regional   66  87  74  89  73 /   0  -   -   20  20
San Antonio Intl Airport       66  89  72  93  71 /   0  -   -   10  10
Stinson Muni Airport           67  90  73  95  73 /   0  -   -   -   10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Hampshire


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