697
FXUS64 KHGX 082257
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
557 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

High pressure will move east of the area which will result in a
deepening onshore flow and consequently an increase in moisture
across SE Texas for Sunday. Highs will be in the lower 90s for
Sunday. For tonight, increasing WAA coupled with the moisture
increase may yield light streamer showers during the early morning
hours on Sunday. Otherwise, expect some increase in cloud cover
overnight with lows in mid to upper 70s. Sunday night`s lows will be
similar.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

A more unsettled pattern is expected during the long term due to
the breakdown of the current mid/upper ridge and the return of a
WNW to NW flow regime in the upper levels. Mid/upper pressure
heights and the presence of capping will be on the decline on
Monday. Meanwhile near the surface, a weak front is forecast to
approach the CWA from the NE, adding some LL convergence into the
mix. This will likely suffice for scattered shower and
thunderstorm development. The next feature of interest will be a
trough that is expected to dig southward over south-central CONUS
and the lower MS River Valley late Tuesday through Thursday.
Combined with the high PWAT and sufficient LL instability, the
trough is expected to set the stage for additional scattered
showers/thunderstorms. If we manage to find ourselves on the
backside of the trough by week`s end, then synoptic decent could
bring drier conditions by Thursday or Friday. However, the
forecast is pretty uncertain for the Thursday-Friday time frame
and we have left isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms in
the forecast.

It is worth mentioning that locally strong to severe thunderstorms
cannot be ruled Monday-Wednesday. Vort maxes embedded in the flow
aloft will be a complicating feature in the forecast for the
upcoming week. These disturbances embedded in a NW flow regime
can sometimes result in organized convection overperforming in SE
TX. Therefore, keeping up with the latest forecast is advised in
case the severe weather risk increases. As of now, the time frame
of most interest aligns with the approach of the mid/upper trough
late Tuesday into Wednesday. However, uncertainty will always be
high regarding timing in these types of convective scenarios.

Regarding temperatures, the long range appears seasonably hot and
humid, with afternoon highs averaging in the low 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s. Even though this heat is considered
`average`, heat safety will still be warranted given that typical
SE Texas June heat can still be dangerous.

Self

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 523 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Patchy fog and low clouds could occasionally bring MVFR conditions
across portions of SE Texas early Sunday morning. Isolated
showers/storms will also be possible during the afternoon hours
on Sunday. Otherwise VFR conditions and southeasterly winds should
dominate throughout the TAF period.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 127 PM CDT Sat Jun 8 2024

Light to moderate winds and seas around 2 feet remain in the
forecast through the forecast period. Rain chances begin to
increase on Sunday, and remain elevated through the forecast
period. Any locally stronger thunderstorms that do develop will
have the potential to produce isolated strong wind gusts and
locally higher seas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  74  92  74  91 /   0  20   0  20
Houston (IAH)  76  92  75  93 /  10  20  10  40
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  79  88 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Self