060
FXUS64 KHGX 112327
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
627 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

It will be an increasingly active afternoon across the area as
showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along the sea breeze
and slowly/gradually work their way inland while more showers/storms
in and around the Hill Country area work their way into Southeast
Texas. Slower moving storms or where any collisions happen could
result in locally heavy rainfall. Cannot totally rule out a couple
strong/severe storms to develop too.

The area remains in a northeast to southwest oriented trof axis
tonight/tomorrow, and additional showers and thunderstorms should
develop again with a similar locally heavy rainfall threat. Look for
things to quiet down heading on into Wednesday night as ridging and
some associated subsidence begins to build into the area.

As previously stated, temperatures will continue to be tempered by
the increased clouds/storms through the short-term. Outside of the
rain areas, highs will range from the lower and mid 90s. Overnight
lows will run from the lower to mid 70s for most locations...near
80 along the immediate coast.

42

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

For Thursday, our temperatures should rise to a maximum around 95F
due to increasing ridging aloft. The minimum should not have a
drastic change and will remain at a steady 70-75F throughout the
week. These maximum temperature values will decrease to 90-95F near
Sunday evening. This decrease will occur based primarily on tropical
moisture moving into our area. This will also cause the chance for
thunderstorms to be more likely from Sunday evening through
Wednesday. There is potential for locally heavy rainfall depending
on the tropical moisture plume. These possible thunderstorms are
described in more detail in the "Tropical" portion of this
discussion. In terms of wind, they should remain to be onshore with
a speed around 5-15 mph throughout the week. Cloud cover will be
scattered for the next few days, however overcast clouds are likely
to be present Sunday evening through Wednesday due to increasing
moisture.

Thompson/Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Scattered TSRA are expected near/around most terminals through
02-04Z Wednesday. Erratic winds and reduced visibility can be
expected with any storms. After a brief lull in rain and storms
tonight; showers return into the region by early Wednesday
morning. Storm chances become more widespread by the afternoon
hours. Winds will generally remain light and variable tonight;
shifting to the northeast-east at around 5 to 10 knots after
midday. VFR conditions are expected through most of the period.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

Winds will remain onshore with a wind speed from 5-15 knots for
the next week. Wave height will be close to 2 feet through the
next few days but will gradually increase throughout Sunday and
Monday. This will eventually get the waves to a height of 6 feet
by Monday night. Increase in winds and seas could possibly lead
to caution flags at the end of the weekend into early next week.
There is also an increase in rain chances from Sunday evening all
the way through Wednesday. As of now, uncertainty remains on
thunderstorm coverage early next week. Please stay tuned to the
latest forecasts.

Thompson/Batiste

&&

.TROPICAL...
Issued at 201 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

We know that there`s some buzz going around about something
potentially developing in the Gulf early next week, so let`s address
the elephant in the room. First things first, this is still about a
week out so any deterministic model you look at SHOULD be taken with
a grain of salt. There does look to be at least a plume of tropical
moisture that moves into the western Gulf of Mexico next week, but
beyond that it`s too early to set anything in stone. Wherever the
moisture plume moves over (even that`s a bit uncertain at this
point) will have increased chances of heavy rainfall due to the
deeper tropical moisture raising PW values above 2". If that
moisture points more towards the Texas coast, then we`ll have to
watch for potential impacts from additional heavy rain falling in
areas that have not fully recovered from the previous heavy rain
events earlier in the spring.

All that being said...it is hurricane season, so regardless of if
there`s anything in the Gulf or not you should already have your
preparations in place. The best time to prepare for hurricane season
is before it starts, the second best time is now. This section of
the discussion will only be updated as needed, so keep track of the
latest on the tropics at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  73  88  72  92 /  60  30   0  10
Houston (IAH)  74  90  74  93 /  50  40  10  10
Galveston (GLS)  80  87  79  90 /  40  40  20  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...42
LONG TERM....Thompson/Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Thompson/Batiste