Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
523 FXUS64 KHGX 060842 AFDHGX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX 342 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday Night) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 For the most part, warm quiet weather will prevail across SE TX for the short term. Ridging aloft will continue to amplify across W TX/ NM the next couple of days with weak surface high pressure persist- ing over the region. Slightly lower dewpoints (in the wake of a now stationary boundary) along with the mostly clear skies will help to give us warm (slightly above normal) daytime temperatures (highs in the lower to mid 90s) with heat index values ranging from 100F-105F during the afternoons. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s across much of the CWA (to the upper 70s at the immediate coast). A return of light onshore winds could add a couple of degrees to these read- ings for tomorrow night. 41 && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 The dominant upper ridge will remain in place through the weekend, with hot and humid but otherwise rain-free conditions expected to prevail through Sunday. Diurnal thunderstorm activity will struggle to develop under the influence of a pronounced midlevel capping inversion, which has kept the PoP forecast near zero through the end of the weekend. The main concern instead will be heat, with high temperatures on both days reaching the low to mid 90s while dew points sit in the low to mid 70s. While this will produce maximum heat index values of around 105 (below our advisory threshold), relatively light winds and mostly clear skies may aggravate potential heat exposure. As such, heat safety measures should still be considered. A pattern shift arrives on Monday, with global models remaining in agreement in depicting the approach of a cold front extending from a surface low over the Northeastern CONUS early on Monday. While the boundary appears likely to stall out before reaching the coast, it will nonetheless bring a chance of widespread showers and storms throughout the day on Monday. That being said, we currently do not anticipate a severe weather and/or flooding threat. An active pattern will take hold into at least the middle part of next week as a robust midlevel trough swings into the South Central CONUS. As the aforementioned boundary continues to linger over the area, additional showers and storms will be possible. Expect high temperatures a few degrees lower to start off the week, with most locations in the upper 80s to near 90. Low temperatures should continue to remain mainly in the low to mid 70s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1158 PM CDT Wed Jun 5 2024 In the split between cloudier/foggier and drier/clearer dilemma posed in 00Z TAFs, it seems that generally the more optimistic scenario is winning out, as vast majority of the area is VFR and calm. Still, some hints of patchy fog about, and SGR did report FEW002 at one point this evening. With calm conditions, anticipate any restrictions that could come up would be VSBY from patchy fog, so have largely excised any CIGs in favor of VFR/MVFR patchy fog in prevailing or TEMPOs. Fog should dissipate rapidly early/mid-morning, with mostly sunny sky and light winds anticipated. && .MARINE... Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Jun 6 2024 Lighter winds and lower seas will prevail through the weekend. There will be a chance for some patchy fog tonight, but visibilities should not get low enough as to require any fog advisories. There remains a risk of rip currents through the rest of the day today. Heading into next week, a more active weather pattern will develop with chances of thunderstorms returning to the forecast beginning on Monday and prevailing through at least Wednesday. Cady && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... College Station (CLL) 93 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 95 74 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 79 89 79 / 0 0 0 0 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....Cady AVIATION...Luchs MARINE...Cady