921
FXUS63 KDDC 312227
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several more opportunities of rain in the forecast from
  tonight through Monday morning

- Highest severe risk looks to be Saturday with downburst winds
  being the main threat

- High confidence in 90 degree temperatures in southwest Kansas
  early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

18z observation show residual cloud cover from last nights
storms and a passing shortwave in central and southwest Kansas
keeping temperatures down across the region. In the upper
levels a shortwave moving over the Colorado rockies is
developing and thunderstorms are starting to form along the I-25
corridor.

For tonight storms are expected to develop from the Denver
metro south to near Trinidad through the afternoon and approach
southwest Kansas between 00-02Z. CAPE values at this time are
forecast to be around 750-1000 J/kg and bulk shear will be in
the 40 kt range so marginal severe storms are possible with hail
up to quarters and gusty winds mainly from the Colorado border
to US 83. Highest rainfall amounts will also be in these areas
as we could see 0.25-0.75 inches of rain in the stronger storms.
Storms should progress eastward after midnight and become more
isolated to widely scattered before ending by sunrise.

Saturday we will start out with residual cloud cover in the east
and sunshine in the west. By mid to late morning short term
models are showing an upper level shortwave in southwest Kansas
and HRRR/RAP models both have a line of convection breaking out
around 18Z along the US283 corridor. Storms will most likely
have an low CAPE in the lower levels and around 1500 J/kg CAPE
in the mid to upper levels and 40 kts bulk shear. These initial
storms could have the threat of hail to golf ball size and wind
gusts to 60 mph. Storms should quickly move into central Kansas
by late afternoon.

Saturday night another 700 mb shortwave should develop
thunderstorms in eastern Colorado and enter western Kansas by
around 03Z. If this area isn`t affected by the afternoon
convection we should have enough CAPE and shear that severe
storms with quarter hail and winds over 60 mph are possible. As
the storms move further east the HRRR has the complex evolving
into a long squall line moving through much of western Kansas
during the overnight hours spreading widespread rainfall and
downburst potential through 08Z. Depending on how much
instability we have remaining from the afternoon convection will
largely determine the severe threat for the overnight storms.
SPC has the whole area under a slight risk mainly for wind gusts
and this is certainly the case Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Ensembles show the upper level pattern in the long term staying
mainly zonal through next Tuesday and then a large ridge
developing for Wednesday and Thursday. Overall it should be
mainly quiet with the exception of Sunday where another passing
shortwave will develop in northeast Colorado and thunderstorms
are expected to move across mainly northwest and north central
Kansas. These storms should also drop an outflow boundary/cold
front for Monday.

Ensemble clusters for temperatures next week are showing higher
confidence of 90 degree temperatures next week with the mean of
the ensembles in the lower 90s and some of the outliers in the
upper 90 degree range. With the warmer air mass in the desert
southwest expanding into the central and southern plains
forecasting 850 mb temperatures in the 22-25(C) range and the
lack of clouds and storms we have high confidence in this warmer
stretch of weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 526 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024


Light easterly wind this evening with VFR conditions as the cu
field remains around 7kft. Clusters of high plains convection
may be coming out of Colorado after about 5z and spreading
across west central KS, potential reaching vicinity of GCK/LBL
and possible even DDC between 7 and 9z. Low chance for briefly
reduced visibility in moderate to heavy rain. HRRR model suggest
some risk for LIFR type stratus or fog development near or at
KHYS around 10-14 UTC.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Tatro
LONG TERM...Tatro
AVIATION...Russell