Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 142336

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
536 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Tonight-Thursday...some high clouds are expected to move across the
area tonight along and behind upper level ridge axis. On Thursday a
dryline lifts north/northeast late in the day ahead of a developing
negatively tilted upper trough and strong vort max over southeast
Colorado. During the mid to late afternoon hours some weak
instability develops along the dryline and enough moisture may be
present for some thunderstorms to develop. Low temperatures in the
30s. High temperatures look to range from the low to mid 70s along
the Kansas-Nebraska border to around 80/low 80s south of the

Thursday night-Friday...forecast area will be under wraparound
precipitation behind the negatively tilted upper low as it slowly
lifts northeast toward north central Kansas/south central Nebraska
by sunrise Friday morning. Winds slowly shift to the northwest from
west to east as well reaching the 15 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts. For Friday the storm center is forecast to reach the Grand
Island area by noon then Omaha around sunset.

I`m a bit concerned about winds and threat for blowing dust during
the day. Comparing this to the March 6 event (initial
observations) shows that the strongest winds and threat for
blowing dust are about 70-75nm from the edge of the wraparound
cloud shield. For this event (adjusted a bit for the slower 18z
NAM) that distance is in the axis of strongest winds aloft and
area of highest mid level lapse rates. Based on current model data
(subject to change) that would put the better chance for
organized plumes of blowing dust to be generally along a line from
Yuma to Seibert to Tribune. Another area is over Decatur and
Norton counties where multiple plumes were observed on the 6th.
Will be adding blowing dust to the forecast.

After morning lows in the mid 30s to low 40s (west to east)
afternoon temperatures should range from the low to mid 50s along
the Kansas-Nebraska border to the low to mid 60s along and south of
the interstate.

Friday night-Saturday night...dry weather expected. Lows Friday
night in the low to upper 20s. Highs on Saturday in the upper 50s to
low 60s. For Saturday night look for lows in the low to mid 30s.

Southerly winds increase into the 15 to 20 mph range with higher
gusts along and west of the Colorado-Kansas border Saturday
afternoon. Based on current minimum relative humidity forecast
approaching 15 percent a fire weather highlight may be
needed...mainly for our far eastern Colorado counties.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Shortwave ridging builds into the High Plains on Saturday, bringing
a slight warmup and dry weather. The ridge moves east of the region
by early Sunday, with southwest flow developing aloft as an upper
trough approaches the Rockies.

This next disturbance generates precipitation chances Sunday
afternoon through Monday morning, with the better chances Sunday
night when the main system moves across. Cooler air begins to filter
into the area, dropping temperatures to near or below freezing
Sunday night. This should result in a changeover from rain to snow
overnight, before switching back to rain mid morning Monday.
Guidance is having some trouble with the timing and placement of
this system, making confidence low at this time. Current forecast
calls for up to 1 inch of snow accumulation.

Gusty northwest winds return Monday on the backside of the low as it
travels east. Relative humidities look to remain above criteria, but
will continue to monitor for fire weather concerns. Things dry out
again for Tuesday and Wednesday as an upper ridge develops over the

High temperatures are in the upper 50s and 60s during the weekend,
falling into the upper 40s and 50s on Monday. A warming trend
follows on Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows are in the 20s and 30s
throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 535 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

VFR through the TAF period for both KGLD and KMCK with scattered
cirrus. Light S-SE winds overnight at both sites will become SW
at KGLD after 10Z but remain SE at KMCK. By 18Z Thursday a
surface low pressure area will become better defined over E
Colorado/W Kansas. This will strengthen SE winds at KMCK during
the afternoon. Wind direction at KGLD during the afternoon will
depend on exactly where the low develops, but current TAF reflects
a return to SE winds after 18Z.


Issued at 245 PM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for several counties across the
forecast area.

A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for parts of the area Friday.
In the watch area northwest winds gusting to 45 mph will combine
with relative humidity values near 15 percent.


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/
     Thursday for KSZ013-027-028-041-042.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for KSZ027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM MDT Thursday for COZ253-254.

     Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening
     for COZ253-254.



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