Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251745

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1145 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Completed an update not too long ago. Main change was to raise
high temperatures near 3 degrees based on latest guidance and
trends. Otherwise else was in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Today, CAA will remain over the area, and only expecting highs to
reach the upper 50s across the Tri-State area. Lows overnight
will be in the mid 30s.

Tonight, winds will shift turning towards the northwest and
increasing through tomorrow as a shortwave passes through the
area. Winds are expected to be around 30-35 mph with gusts around
40 mph. Depending on daytime mixing, may see these winds come up
5-10 mph higher. Guidance is showing stronger winds above the
inversion, but felt confident enough to go with a blend of

Highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s due to CAA again on

Not expecting any precipitation or major weather threats for the
near term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Fri/Fri night: Expect dry conditions and a warming trend as an
upper level ridge builds atop the Rockies and High Plains.

Sat-Tue: The aforementioned upper ridge is progged to weaken and
shift east of the Mississippi late this weekend as a broad upper
level trough becomes established over the western CONUS. Expect
warm temperatures to prevail Sat-Tue as southerly return flow
strengthens in response to upstream height falls and increasingly
diffluent flow aloft over the Rockies. Although an H85 ridge along
the TX/LA coast will block low-level moisture return from the
GOMEX on Saturday, long range model guidance indicates that the
H85 ridge will progress eastward to the Southeast coast by the end
of the weekend... and that increasingly rich low-level moisture
will advect poleward beneath a pronounced elevated mixed layer
Sun-Tue. Although convective development/evolution will highly
depend upon the evolution of the western CONUS trough and the
precise timing/magnitude of shortwave energy therein (among other
factors) - the stage appears to be set for a severe weather
outbreak over portions of the Central and Southern Plains early
next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period for Kgld and most
of the period for Kmck. For Kgld, north winds near 12 knots with
gusts around 20 knots will become light and variable near 00z.
Those light and variable winds will become south near 8 knots
around 03z then southwest at 12 knots around 08z. A strong cold
front will move through the region late tonight and early
tomorrow. At 12z north winds of 22 knots with gusts to around 30
knots and low level wind shear will occur until 15z. At 15z, those
winds increase to 29 knots with gusts to 37 knots.

For Kmck, north winds near 9 knots will become light and variable
around 00z. Those winds become south around 6 knots at 04z. Near
10z those shift to the west at 6 knots. At 14z, a strong cold
front moves through. At that time mvfr conditions will move as
north winds increase to 26 knots with gusts to 34 knots. Both of
these continue through the end of the period.




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