Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251915

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
115 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Completed an update not too long ago. Main change was to raise
high temperatures near 3 degrees based on latest guidance and
trends. Otherwise else was in good shape.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 324 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Today, CAA will remain over the area, and only expecting highs to
reach the upper 50s across the Tri-State area. Lows overnight
will be in the mid 30s.

Tonight, winds will shift turning towards the northwest and
increasing through tomorrow as a shortwave passes through the
area. Winds are expected to be around 30-35 mph with gusts around
40 mph. Depending on daytime mixing, may see these winds come up
5-10 mph higher. Guidance is showing stronger winds above the
inversion, but felt confident enough to go with a blend of

Highs will reach the upper 50s to low 60s due to CAA again on

Not expecting any precipitation or major weather threats for the
near term forecast period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Thursday Night-Saturday...Shortwave will drive cold front well to
the south of the area with large scale subsidence overspreading
the region. This will lead to clearing skies and light winds as
sfc high settles over the area. With dewpoints in the 20s and
optimal clearing could see temperatures fall into the upper 20s
across a good chunk of the area. One possible thing holding temps
will be how fast sfc high departs area and westerly flow develops,
but think there will be at least a 3 hour window where frost/near
hard freeze conditions will be met. Based on climatology and
growing degree day guidance, do not think we are deep enough into
growing season for any highlights at this moment. Fairly benign
conditions expected through the day Friday as large scale ridging
builds over the area, with temperatures beginning a warming trend
that continues through the start of next week.

Winds on Saturday will increase as lee trough intensifies and
while I do not expect any kind of wind highlights, it does look to
be a quite breezy day with winds out of the southeast.
Southeasterly flow will continue to advect moisture into the area
which should keep humidities up and fire weather conditions

In the extended (Saturday Night-Wednesday)...Confidence in overall
forecast evolution remains fairly low as operational models as
well as ensemble solutions diverge greatly with how H5 trough to
the west will develop resulting in very different solutions with
key features after Monday. While there is a lot of uncertainty,
does look like temps will warm through at least Monday with strong
southerly winds expected. May see a round of potentially strong
thunderstorms by Monday afternoon and possibly Tuesday as ample
moisture return should destabilize things. Fire weather may also
become an issue by Monday across western zones where confidence in
position of driest air is highest.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Vfr conditions are expected through the period for Kgld and most
of the period for Kmck. For Kgld, north winds near 12 knots with
gusts around 20 knots will become light and variable near 00z.
Those light and variable winds will become south near 8 knots
around 03z then southwest at 12 knots around 08z. A strong cold
front will move through the region late tonight and early
tomorrow. At 12z north winds of 22 knots with gusts to around 30
knots and low level wind shear will occur until 15z. At 15z, those
winds increase to 29 knots with gusts to 37 knots.

For Kmck, north winds near 9 knots will become light and variable
around 00z. Those winds become south around 6 knots at 04z. Near
10z those shift to the west at 6 knots. At 14z, a strong cold
front moves through. At that time mvfr conditions will move as
north winds increase to 26 knots with gusts to 34 knots. Both of
these continue through the end of the period.




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