Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 140824

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
224 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 224 AM MDT Wed Mar 14 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...skies are clear with a
surface high off east of the area. The result is a light southerly
wind with temps ranging mainly in the lower to mid 30s.

Going into today...surface ridge remains to our east w/ an amplified
H5 ridge shifting east off the Rockies and into the Plains region.
Lack of moisture over the region gives the area another dry day with
low RH readings. Weak trough shifts off the Front Range during the
day...tightening surface gradient just east of the region this
afternoon. This will keep CWA from seeing Red Flag
conditions...especially E/SE zones where conditions are closest.
Elevated Fire Wx conditions will persist here though.

Dry conditions will persist tonight with wind slackening after

This is going to set the region up for the main wx concerns going
into Thursday and Friday. Amplified H5 ridge shifts east of the
region on the area SW flow aloft. A shortwave
working into Rockies tomorrow and is surface low compliment work off
the Rockies by the afternoon hrs. This will increase surface winds
from the E/SE. Daytime hours Thursday will be dry with low RH
readings for the area. It looks like at this time that Red Flag
criteria will be met for portions of NE CO and extreme southern
areas of the CWA...which has prompted issuance of a Fire Wx Watch.
The coverage of this Watch may increase by next zones
next to affected areas are close.

For Thursday night...first chance in a while for light precip for
portions of the CWA...especially for areas along and north of
Interstate 70. The surface low from Thursday afternoon along with
its upper level support continues trek eastward into the CWA
overnight. Latest models hinting at some light shower activity
occurring. Based on the track of this system at this time...most of
the moisture is wrapped into northern zones so will keep best
chances there for a few hundredths of an inch of rain. Temps too
warm at this time for any snow showers except at the tail-end of the
system on late Friday afternoon/evening before precip tapers off.

Weak instability for a couple hours around 00z Friday could allow
for weak convection to occur north of Highway 36/west of Highway 83
before system shifts north and east.

With precip tapering off during the day Friday mainly north...drying
will ensue over mainly southern zones with clouds affecting northern
areas at least thru early afternoon. Gradient winds and low RH will
work over portions of the CWA...creating Elevated Fire Wx conditions
for locales south of Interstate 70. Changes in speed/timing/track of
the system Thursday night/Friday could allow for an increase in Fire
Wx potential and will have to be monitored.

For temps...looking for daytime highs today and Thursday to range 20
to 25 degrees above normal with numbers reaching into the
70s...warmest south. By Friday with the passage of the wx
system...highs mainly in the 50s...with some low 60s in extreme
south. Overnight lows will mainly drop into the 30s tonight and
Thursday night with 20s by Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 200 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

Ridge weakens and is shunted east on Thursday as the next system
enters the Great Basin. As low pressure deepens in northeast
Colorado in response to that system, a cold front will drop out of
Nebraska and settle across northwest Kansas by the afternoon.
Temperatures north of the front will be in the upper 60s to lower
70s, while south of the front expect upper 70s to lower 80s. Once
again will see elevated fire weather conditions south of the
front, cannot rule out some areas of critical as well.

Models now agree that first piece of energy ejecting across the
Rockies Thursday night and Friday will close off and have a
slight negative tilt. Precipitation chances/amounts have increased
as a result, particularly north of the Interstate and in
southwest Nebraska. Precipitation will be mainly in the form of
rain, but might see a brief mix or changeover to snow, but no
accumulation is expected. The other concern will be strong winds
on the backside from very late Thursday night/early Friday morning
through Friday afternoon. Models show a 50-60kt wind max at 700mb
developing in the southwest quadrant of the closed low. This
would potentially impact the western half of the area with strong
and gusty northwest winds. Precipitation may limit the potential
for blowing dust. It is still several days out but will need to
keep monitoring.

Upper low will lift out Friday night with dry conditions through
Saturday under southwest flow aloft. Temperatures on Saturday will
be near to slightly above normal.

Main upper low will then eject across the Rockies and into the
central and northern plains on Sunday night/Monday. Track is a
little further north and area may be get dry slotted. Nonetheless,
will have a chance of rain or rain/snow during that time with best
chances across western and northern areas. Accumulating snow
amounts currently appear less than an inch. May see some breezy
northwest winds on Monday on the backside, but with the system
further north should escape stronger winds. Expect for
precipitation to be ending by Monday night. Temperatures will be
near normal for Monday and Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1048 PM MDT Tue Mar 13 2018

VFR conditions expected for the TAFs. Winds continue to be on the
light side at around 10 kts or less.


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ041-042.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for COZ253-254.



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