Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200822

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
222 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Latest satellite imagery and upper air analysis show the storm
system which brought rain and snow to the forecast area is
continuing to move east.  Behind the storm system a ridge is building
over the Rockies.

Today a warm front will move east through the forecast area to
Highway 83.  Behind the front northwest winds will increase, gusting
20-30 MPH west of a Russell Springs to Goodland and Haigler line.
Behind the warm front lower dew points will move in/mix down to the
ground west of Highway 27. This may lead to hazardous fire weather
conditions. See fire weather section for further information.

Tonight the winds will quickly become light in the evening.  Lows
will be similar to last night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 218 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Wednesday and Thursday the winds will be fairly light and
temperatures will warm as the upper level ridge slides over the
forecast area.

The upper ridge moves east of the region on Friday with a fast
moving short wave trough lifting out of the southwest U.S. and
across the forecast area by Friday evening.  Much above average
temperatures are expected on Friday with highs in the mid 70s to
mid 80s. Have loaded the GFSMOS winds into the forecast on Friday
with stronger gusty south winds during the day ahead of the
deepening surface trough and upper system expected to move across
the region late in the day. Along with the warm temperatures and
winds over 25mph, RH values over the southwest third of the
forecast area are expected to be less than 20% with the far
southwest corner dropping to less than 15%. this will likely
produce critical fire weather conditions over the southwest
sections from mid day through early evening on Friday.

The surface low follows the upper low across the across Kansas
Friday night. Showers are expected across the northern portions of
the forecast area during the overnight hours  Dry conditions are
expected on Saturday with high temperatures cooling 5-10 degrees
from the highs on Friday.  The western sections of the forecast area
will continue to be dry, but with wind speeds expected to be lower,
fire weather conditions will likely be elevated, but do not appear
to be critical at this time.

SW flow aloft remains across the region through the weekend.
Differences in timing become more divergent between models over the
weekend with the GFS becoming more progressive with the series of
short wave troughs lifting out across the forecast area than the
ECMWF.  With low confidence in any particular solution, have kept
the Forecast Blender solution intact from late Sunday through
Tuesday. Areas of low probability precipitation are advertised
from the end of the weekend through the beginning portion of next
week with temperatures cooler and closer to average for this time
of year. This means the area could see a mix of light rain and
snow as a series of weak systems lift out across the region as the
upper southwest flow becomes more westerly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM MDT Mon Mar 19 2018

Low clouds will continue to slowly scattered out overnight. May
see a brief reduction in ceilings to MVFR at either KGLD or KMCK,
but think VFR will prevail most of the time through the night. By
Tuesday morning, only a few high clouds will remain. Surface winds
will increase at KGLD by mid to late Tuesday morning, but be light
and variable at KMCK.


Issued at 218 AM MDT Tue Mar 20 2018

The combination of wind gusts close to 30 MPH and relative humidity
values falling to 20% or less may lead to hazardous fire weather
conditions west of a Leoti to Burlington and Wray line this
afternoon.  If the lower dew points move further east than currently
expected, the lower relative humidity will spread further east as
well.  Due to the relative humidity not falling to 15%, will not be
issuing a warning for the west part of the forecast area.  However
the dead vegetation will be ripe for rapid fire spread due to the
gusty winds during the afternoon.  During the latter half of the
afternoon the winds should gradually decline, but still remain




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