Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 141114
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
514 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Light snow will end west to east today as the upper low pulls away
and ridge builds from the west. Winds, however, will be slower to
subside, and expecting gusts 50-60mph to continue well into the
afternoon. Even as the snow ends, blowing snow will still be a
problem and may see ground blizzard conditions this afternoon. For
this reason, will keep the blizzard warning going until 00z.
Additional snow amounts today, however, will be less than one
inch. Clearing skies, diminishing winds and snow pack should allow
temperatures to fall tonight well into the teens. Most records
for the day are in the upper teens, so expect several records to
be broken.

Ridge strengthens over the area Sunday and Monday, with the axis
over the High Plains by Monday afternoon. Temperatures will
rebound to the mid 40s to lower 60s on Sunday, coldest in
Nebraska, then 60s and 70s on Monday. May see a return of critical
fire weather conditions in southwest half of the area on Monday
with gusty southeast winds and relative humidity forecast to fall
to near 15 percent.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Tuesday and Wednesday: H5 ridge moves to the east on Tuesday as a
trough and associated cold front pushes in from the west. We should
see a dry frontal passage as the best forcing and moisture along the
theta-e boundary remain to our north. Temperatures will peak in the
70s to near 80 degrees before sharply dropping through the
afternoon. Northwest winds will be quite strong, potentially gusting
into the 40 to 45 mph range during the afternoon and evening. Lows
fall into the lower 30s in eastern Colorado and into the upper 30s
near Hill City. Northwest flow aloft prevails on Wednesday in the
wake of Tuesday`s cold front with breezy conditions expected. Highs
will be much cooler with afternoon temperatures reaching the
upper 50s to middle 60s.

Thursday and Friday: A shortwave ridge briefly builds into the
region on Thursday, allowing our temperatures to rebound into the
middle to upper 60s. This ridge is quickly pushed eastward during
the late morning through early afternoon by an approaching H5 low
that will bring us our next chance of precipitation. Rain chances
increase during the late evening Thursday and into early Friday
morning. Although there is still some disagreement with the model
guidance, there is some consensus that we could see a chance of
moderate to heavy rain with this system, especially Friday evening
and overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 511 AM MDT Sat Apr 14 2018

Snow and blowing snow will continue to impact both KGLD and KMCK
this morning with very restricted visibility, low ceilings and
surface winds gusting over 50kts. Conditions will gradually
improve through the afternoon hours, but blowing snow will
continue to reduce visibilities. By early this evening, expecting
a return to VFR at both terminals as winds subside.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

     Blizzard Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029.

CO...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.

     Blizzard Warning until 6 PM MDT this evening for COZ090>092.

NE...High Wind Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

     Blizzard Warning until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ this evening for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ERRYK
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...ERRYK



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