Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

FXUS63 KGLD 242010

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
210 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Tonight...mid level moisture will interact with a frontal boundary
to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms this evening with
some of the storms becoming severe generally south and east of a
line from Norton to Goodland and Flagler. Another disturbance moves
out of southeast Wyoming into the McCook and Norton areas close to
midnight producing a small batch of possible severe storms.
Precipitation should come to an end by early morning Friday. Low
temperatures range from the low to mid 50s in far eastern Colorado
to the mid 50s to low 60s east of the CO/KS border.

Friday-Friday night...upper level ridging builds over the area ahead
of a low pressure system off the central California coast. 850mb
temperatures and bias corrected grids support highs in the mid 80s
to near 90 in far eastern Colorado with low to mid 90s east of the
CO/KS border. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to low 60s. No
precipitation is expected.

Saturday-Saturday night...the upper ridge axis is firmly over the
area during the day before slowly moving east during the night
putting the forecast area under southwest flow aloft ahead of a low
pressure center over Nevada and Utah. 850mb temperatures warm
another 2F to 6F across the area and when combined with better
performing bias grids produce highs in the low to upper 90s across
the area. Along and west of the CO/KS border southeast winds look to
become breezy with gusts 30 to 35 mph possible. Low temperatures
range from the mid 50s to low 60s in far eastern Colorado with mid
60s east of the state line.

Sunday...models continue to advertise a weather disturbance moving
north-northeast into the area ahead of upper low to our west. This
continues to support a chance for afternoon thunderstorms. Breezy
southeast winds again with highs in the mid/upper 80s west to low
90s east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Southwest flow prevails at the start of the period, with an upper
low centered over eastern Nevada and western Utah. This low pushes
northeast into the northern Plains on Monday and Tuesday, before
traveling along the Canadian border towards the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday.

As this disturbance advances, a few waves pass over the region and
surface lee side troughing persists near the Colorado border through
midweek. With this set up, periodic showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Sunday night through Wednesday. There is a potential for
severe thunderstorms during this timeframe with decent moisture,
sufficient shear, and good instability in place. Will be able to
resolve details including location and timing closer to next week as
guidance improves.

Upper ridging begins to develop across the High Plains late
Wednesday into Thursday. Could still see some precipitation chances
on Thursday before the ridge amplifies on Friday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, with highs in the
80s to low 90s and lows in the 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Northwest to
northeast winds expected through about 23z before becoming
variable as thunderstorms possibly impact the wind field. After
06z winds begin from the south under 10kts then slowly veer to the
west by 12z and north by 17z. Currently have VCTS in the 22z-00z
timeframe as a cold front initiates thunderstorm development. Its
possible that the terminal could be impacted with large hail and
damaging winds the primary threats during this time frame.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A south wind
under 10kts at taf issuance will become variable as a cold front
moves in. After 06z winds begin from the southwest under 10kts
then slowly veer to the southwest and west by 14z. Currently have
thunderstorms out of the forecast but will need to watch the
02z-04z timeframe as a few models bring thunderstorms through the
terminal from the northwest.




AVIATION...99 is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.