374
FXUS63 KGLD 050925
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
325 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monday will see a chance for severe thunderstorms east of
  Highway 25 in northwest Kansas and southwest Nebraska from the
  late morning to mid afternoon hours.

- Also on Monday, for areas west of Highway 25 near critical to
  critical fire weather conditions will be likely during the
  afternoon due to low humidity and gusty west winds. Some
  patchy blowing dust will also be possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 130 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

High pressure in control today with light winds and mostly sunny
skies. Tonight, return flow around the high begins with
increasing southeasterly winds. Stratus will develop by 12z in
the Kansas and Colorado border area, with perhaps some patchy
fog, expanding across much of the area through the morning. HRRR
suggests the low clouds will be slow to erode through Sunday
afternoon in central and eastern portions of the area,
potentially impacting temperatures. Hard to find much support
for lower temperatures in guidance, so will only tweak
temperatures down a few degrees in eastern areas. It will also
be windy with south to southeast winds gusting over 40 mph in
western areas by the afternoon as a trough deepens in eastern
Colorado. Lows tonight will be in the lower 40s and highs on
Sunday in the 60s in the aforementioned cooler areas to the
lower 70s in western areas with some afternoon sun.

Sunday night will see those winds continue to increase. Models
may be over mixing, particularly the GFS, but still going to be
breezy to windy south winds through the night. Upper trough axis
will be in central Colorado by early Monday morning. May see
scattered showers begin to develop overnight Sunday with an
isolated thunderstorm or two with favorable MUCAPE.

As upper trough lifts into the Nebraska panhandle Monday morning
westerly winds will overspread the area aloft and at the
surface. Dry line will race eastward in the morning and by 18z
probably be all the way to Highway 83. There is a short window,
between about 16z and 20z, when the dry line may still be in
the area and thunderstorms may initiate. Forecast soundings
from the NAMnest, which initiates storms on the dry line in the
eastern six counties, shows around 1500 j/kg of SBCAPE and 60
kts of 0-6km shear, which should be sufficient for a severe risk
of large hail, damaging winds and perhaps a tornado. Meanwhile,
west of the dry line it will be dry and windy with a risk for
critical fire weather conditions. Lowest humidity will be south
of Interstate 70 and west of Highway 25 with high probabilities
for relative humidity of 15% or lower and for wind gusts of 25
mph or higher. However, models not in the best of agreement on
potential for meeting high wind warning criteria. NBM
probabilities for gusts of 55 mph or greater are generally
confined to Colorado during the morning at 20-30 percent,
decreasing in the afternoon. Finally, low level lapse rates west
of the dry line are favorable for blowing dust, but wind gusts
a bit lacking, and recent rainfall may negate some of the
potential as well. Precipitation should be done for the area by
Monday afternoon. Highs will be in the lower 70s and lows Monday
night ranging from the upper 30s in Colorado to the lower 40s
in eastern areas.

On Tuesday, the upper low will be in the northern plains with
zonal flow across the central plains. It will be breezy to
windy and dry. Critical fire weather conditions may be met once
again, but potentially more widespread compared to Monday with
just about the entire area dropping into the teens for humidity
in the afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 70s and lows
Tuesday night ranging from the middle 30s in Colorado to the
lower 40s in eastern areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 325 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Most of next week`s weather will be influenced by a large upper low
moving over the Northwest CONUS while the trough extends south
towards the Mexico border. This low is expected to linger over the
Great Plains and Rockies through Friday. Given the pattern and the
potential for shortwave disturbances to also move over the Tri-State
area, there is a chance (up to 30%) of showers and thunderstorms
over various portions of the area. Wednesday currently has the least
amount of confidence for any precipitation due to a lack of moisture
and a surface high lingering over the Rockies. Severe weather is not
anticipated during the period as instability is limited in the long
range guidance.

There is concern for critical fire weather conditions on Tuesday
along and south of a Logan County to Cheyenne County, Colorado line.
RH values are forecast to fall into the low to mid teens with WSW to
westerly winds gusting up to 45-50 mph. Locales north of the area of
concern are expected to remain in the upper teens for RH with gusts
up to 45 mph. Wednesday has the potential for near critical to
critical fire weather conditions with RH values in the mid to upper
teens along and south of a Yuma to Oakley line. Northwest winds are
forecast to gust up to 35 mph. Overlapping conditions are a limiting
factor for the southwest corner being able to reach Red Flag
criteria as winds decrease during the late afternoon.

Late Friday into Saturday the upper low finally begins to move over
the Eastern CONUS. Shortwave ridging is expected to move over the
Tri-State area ahead of another upper low that should move across
the Great Basin. Some showers and non-severe storms remain possible
in the afternoon primarily over Colorado with up to 20% confidence.
Temperatures during the long term are expected to be mainly in the
60s to 70s each day, except for Friday which is forecast to be in
the 60s across the area. Overnight lows will be in the 30s and 40s
each night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1002 PM MDT Sat May 4 2024

For KGLD, conditions start as VFR through about 08z Sunday,
then transition to MVFR with 5-6sm in fog and ceilings around
BKN015-025. VFR do not return until 03z Monday onward. Winds,
southeast 10-15kts, increasing to around 25-35kts from 17z
Sunday onward.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through much of the forecast period,
with MVFR ceilings(BKN015-020) working into the area by 00z
Monday. Winds, southeast 10-15kts through 17z Sunday, then
increasing to around 20-30kts. LLWS 00z-06z Monday 160@45kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...JN