Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230840

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
240 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Upper low will lift from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies
today. Southwesterly flow aloft continues over the central plains
with weak embedded disturbances. Convective allowing models
developing precipitation by around 21z, widely scattered over the
area with some slight increase in coverage south of the
Interstate. NMM/ARW suggest storms will congeal this evening in
northwest Kansas then lift into western Nebraska by 06z.
Environment will be weakly to moderately unstable with deep layer
shear of 20-30kts, both parameters best in northern areas. Severe
risk looks marginal at best, with hail/gusty winds the threats.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s.

Next upper low will approach California on Thursday with shortwave
ridging ahead of it into the central Rockies. Although flow aloft
is rather weak, there is a shortwave trough coming out of
Colorado in the afternoon. In addition, there will be a cold
front moving through the area late in the afternoon and through
the evening. CAMs do little to nothing before 00z, although the
operational NAM does break out convection along and ahead of the
front by late afternoon. After 00z, models zero in on the eastern
half of the area and the slow moving front, with QPF bullseyes of
2 or more inches suggesting the possibility of locally heavy
rainfall. Severe potential will be limited by continued lack of
deep layer shear any more than about 20kts, although instability
will be in the moderate to strong category. So, looking at a
marginal risk of severe storms in addition to the heavy rain
threat. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

Ridge will begin to build over the central plains on Friday as the
upper low settles into the Four Corners. As a result,thunderstorm
chances will be isolated at best, with the only forcing due to
strong surface heating in an uncapped/weakly to moderately unstable
environment. Looking for the typical late afternoon/early evening
timeframe for Friday. Expecting temperatures to warm into the
lower to middle 90s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 136 AM MDT Wed May 23 2018

Going into the upcoming holiday weekend...cresting H5/H7 ridge over
the Front Range/eastern slopes of Rockies will shift eastward thru
the day Saturday out into the Central Plains. An upper low will set
up over the Rockies and slowly lift NE into the Northern Plains thru
midweek next week. Weak shortwaves are expected to slowly work out
across the CWA in tandem with a lee-side trough Sunday into next
week. The result of these systems will bring the chance for
precipitation to the region.

Saturday/Saturday night: with the upper ridge axis sliding east of
the region during the day...strong WAA over the region will
ensue...with 850mb temps +27c to +33c giving the area above normal
highs ranging from the upper 80s to the mid 90s. Overnight lows will
remain above normal as well with a range from the upper 50s thru the
mid 60s.

Sunday/Sunday night: upper ridge remains east of the CWA during the
24 period providing another above normal day with highs everywhere
in the lower to mid 90s...and overnight temps bottoming in mid 50s
to mid 60s...warmest east. The afternoon/early evening hours will
see the chance for rw/trw move across the area as a shortwave/lee-
side trough shifts off the Front Range into the region. With the
shift eastward happening by the afternoon the main focus for
convection looks to occur over central zones shifting to eastern
areas for the evening hrs.

Monday/Monday night: lee-side trough remains over Western portions
of the area during the 24-hour period with another weak shortwave
working over the region for the afternoon/early evening hours again.
Timing of the shortwave puts best chance for precip over the east
during the evening. Region remains under a SW upper flow regime and
will see highs range from the mid 80s to lower 90s...tempered only
by expected cloud cover from afternoon convection. Overnight lows
mid 50s to the lower 60s.

Tuesday thru Wednesday night: upper low over the Rockies begins to
lift into the Northern Plains during this timeframe...allowing for
strong upper ridge to re-assert itself over the Plains. Upper flow
zonal to WSW during this time...keeping WAA and above normal temps
for the entire area. Looking for daytime highs to reach into the mid
and upper 80s both days...with overnight lows in the upper 50s to
lower 60s. A couple shortwaves traverse the region on the north side
of the ridge providing the chance for rw/trw...especially again for
the afternoon/early evening timeframe where best heating/instability
will exist.

For expected trw chances...PW values will range from 0.50" to 1.00"
in a west to east orientation from Sunday onward. These numbers
could give some areas the potential for locally heavy downpours.

Other concerns for the extended period will be the dry conditions
for SW portions of the CWA. These areas will have the least chances
to receive any precip based on movement of troughs/shortwaves.
Afternoon RH readings will drop below 20 percent for a few of the
days...with winds reaching near criteria to warrant mention of
elevated fire wx concerns.

With many areas seeing well above normal temps in the 90s over the
holiday weekend...some record highs are possible. Please refer to
the Climate section for more information. Some locales will come
close to tying/breaking records.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1133 PM MDT Tue May 22 2018

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. The broken line of storms
will remain well south of the TAF sites. LLWS will be the main
impact for the sites for the TAF tonight and again Wednesday




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