Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 202004

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
204 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Issued at 1234 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Update issued to adjust up cloud cover for western portions of
the CWA. Latest visible loop showing increased areal coverage of
low clouds back west. Have brought back in psunny/msunny wording
to these areas. Temps were also tweaked based on latest obs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Weakening upper low over southwest Nebraska this morning will be
slow to lift out. Fog/drizzle will persist this morning, then low
clouds will slowly lift out from southwest to northeast through
this afternoon. Expecting high temperatures in the 60s. Will be
too cool and stable for any convection. Surface winds will be
light northeast through today becoming light southeast tonight.
Will have to watch out for possible fog development tonight, but
confidence is low as wind direction is not ideal.

Shortwave ridge will build over the area on Monday. At the
surface, breezy south winds will develop by midday. The
combination of strong surface heating, with high temperatures
around 80, and increasing moisture will result in moderate
instability by the afternoon. Convective allowing models break out
widely scattered thunderstorms along the Kansas and Colorado
border area, apparently in response to a weak shortwave trough
climbing the backside of the ridge late in the afternoon. Coverage
will likely be limited by the weak forcing, but the combination of
decent instability and deep layer shear of 20-30kts may be enough
for an isolated severe storm or two. Anything that develops will
weaken Monday evening as they move northeast.

Upper low over the Four Corners region will continue a southwest
flow aloft over the central plains on Tuesday. Temperatures will
warm once again well into the 80s with breezy south winds.
Instability is a little weaker compared to Monday, while deep
layer shear becomes rather poor at only 5-15kts. The weak forcing
will only result in isolated/widely scattered afternoon storms,
and severe threat appears to be minimal due to the lack of shear.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 204 PM MDT Sun May 20 2018

In the extended the models starts out showing a ridge over the High
Plains and an upper level closed low centered over the Nevada/Utah
border. This is influencing the region with southwesterly flow
aloft. The low looks to become an open wave as it makes its way
north across the Rockies. Heading into Friday, this, now, open wave
will travel along the Canadian border and the northern Plains, as
the ridge weakness and moves towards the east. As this wave
transitions east into the Great Lakes on Saturday, another ridge of
high pressure builds over our area from the west, resulting in
northwesterly flow aloft over the High Plains.

Due to the influence from the wave moving across the northern
Rockies, there are minimal shower and thunderstorm chances across
portions of our region each afternoon/evening Wednesday through
Friday. With the ridge building moving into the region conditions
looks to be dry on Saturday.

Temperatures will remain above normal throughout the period with
highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s and overnight lows dropping
into the middle 50s to lower 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1104 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

For KGLD...expecting mainly VFR conditions thru the forecast
period. From 10z-15z Monday...MVFR with BKN015 and 6sm BR.
Winds...N 10-20kts thru 20z...becoming NE around 10kts. By 02z
Monday...ESE around 10kts shifting S by 15z and increasing to

For KMCK...expecting an MVFR/VFR mix thru 15z Monday...then VFR.
Ceilings will mix in a range from BKN010-050 thru 15z. 3-6sm in
fog 07z-15z Monday. Winds...N around 10kts thru 23z then ESE
5-10kts. By 15z SE around 10kts.




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