Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201116

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
516 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Weakening upper low over southwest Nebraska this morning will be
slow to lift out. Fog/drizzle will persist this morning, then low
clouds will slowly lift out from southwest to northeast through
this afternoon. Expecting high temperatures in the 60s. Will be
too cool and stable for any convection. Surface winds will be
light northeast through today becoming light southeast tonight.
Will have to watch out for possible fog development tonight, but
confidence is low as wind direction is not ideal.

Shortwave ridge will build over the area on Monday. At the
surface, breezy south winds will develop by midday. The
combination of strong surface heating, with high temperatures
around 80, and increasing moisture will result in moderate
instability by the afternoon. Convective allowing models break out
widely scattered thunderstorms along the Kansas and Colorado
border area, apparently in response to a weak shortwave trough
climbing the backside of the ridge late in the afternoon. Coverage
will likely be limited by the weak forcing, but the combination of
decent instability and deep layer shear of 20-30kts may be enough
for an isolated severe storm or two. Anything that develops will
weaken Monday evening as they move northeast.

Upper low over the Four Corners region will continue a southwest
flow aloft over the central plains on Tuesday. Temperatures will
warm once again well into the 80s with breezy south winds.
Instability is a little weaker compared to Monday, while deep
layer shear becomes rather poor at only 5-15kts. The weak forcing
will only result in isolated/widely scattered afternoon storms,
and severe threat appears to be minimal due to the lack of shear.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 202 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

An upper closed low over the western CONUS weakens into an open wave
on Wednesday as it travels north from the southwestern CONUS across
the Rockies. Meanwhile, our region remains under a ridge and
southwest flow. Thursday into Friday, the wave travels along the
Canadian border and the northern Plains, breaking down the ridge. As
this disturbance transitions east into the Great Lakes on Saturday,
ridging redevelops and places the High Plains under northwest flow

There are minimal (and spotty) shower and thunderstorm chances
across portions of the region each afternoon and evening Wednesday
through Friday as the wave moves across the country. Conditions dry
out on Saturday as the upper ridge nudges in. Temperatures will
remain above normal throughout the period with highs in the 80s and
lows in the 50s to low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 514 AM MDT Sun May 20 2018

Low clouds will gradually scatter out this morning, with VFR
expected at both KGLD and KMCK by mid to late morning. High
pressure will build in from the north through the day, with winds
becoming light.




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