Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 260358

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
958 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 234 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Forecast issues will be winds and chance of precipitation later
tonight into Thursday. Strong cold front will move through the area
later tonight into early tomorrow morning. Tight pressure gradient
and pressure rises support having windy to almost very windy
conditions. Strongest winds should be not too long after the
front moves through. We are fortunate that the front comes through
before the sun is up or we would have a threat of 60 mph. It
looks like the inversion keeps the winds from getting out of hand.
Evening and overnight shifts will need to watch this closely.

Precipitation looks to be post frontal. Right rear quadrant moves
across the area later tonight through tomorrow morning. Strong
and narrow mesoscale forcing/baroclinic boundary moves through at
the same time. Theta-e lapse rates near zero coincides with this
band. Also there appears to be enough cold air aloft as shown by
TQ index during the daytime hours to generate instability showers.

Problem is that most if not all of the moisture involved with this
system is near 700 mb and above. There will not be a lot of time for
the moisture to saturate down since this is a fast moving system. So
plan on inserting sprinkles. High temperatures look to be near what
they were today.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 114 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

Thursday Night-Saturday...Shortwave will drive cold front well to
the south of the area with large scale subsidence overspreading
the region. This will lead to clearing skies and light winds as
sfc high settles over the area. With dewpoints in the 20s and
optimal clearing could see temperatures fall into the upper 20s
across a good chunk of the area. One possible thing holding temps
will be how fast sfc high departs area and westerly flow develops,
but think there will be at least a 3 hour window where frost/near
hard freeze conditions will be met. Based on climatology and
growing degree day guidance, do not think we are deep enough into
growing season for any highlights at this moment. Fairly benign
conditions expected through the day Friday as large scale ridging
builds over the area, with temperatures beginning a warming trend
that continues through the start of next week.

Winds on Saturday will increase as lee trough intensifies and
while I do not expect any kind of wind highlights, it does look to
be a quite breezy day with winds out of the southeast.
Southeasterly flow will continue to advect moisture into the area
which should keep humidities up and fire weather conditions

In the extended (Saturday Night-Wednesday)...Confidence in overall
forecast evolution remains fairly low as operational models as
well as ensemble solutions diverge greatly with how H5 trough to
the west will develop resulting in very different solutions with
key features after Monday. While there is a lot of uncertainty,
does look like temps will warm through at least Monday with strong
southerly winds expected. May see a round of potentially strong
thunderstorms by Monday afternoon and possibly Tuesday as ample
moisture return should destabilize things. Fire weather may also
become an issue by Monday across western zones where confidence in
position of driest air is highest.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 954 PM MDT Wed Apr 25 2018

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main issue will be the windy
conditions behind the cold front. The strongest winds will be in
the morning then gradually decline in the afternoon. There could
be some very light rainfall along the front and possibly MVFR




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