Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 192013

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
213 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Through Saturday night)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

An upper level low centered invof southern CA/NV this afternoon
will track over the 4-Corners region tonight and progress slowly
eastward across the Rockies into the Central/Southern Plains Fri-
Sat night. 12Z guidance is in reasonable agreement on the overall
synoptic pattern, however, uncertainty persists with regard to
the precise evolution of the upper low as it traverses the Great
Basin/Rockies and the subsequent evolution of a lee cyclone in
eastern CO. Although confidence is relatively high that the Tri-
State area will receive much needed rain, further detail (e.g. how
much, which areas receive the most) remains difficult to determine.
In general, expect a quarter to half inch of rain, most of which
will fall Friday afternoon through Saturday morning. With little
in the way of cold advection on the W/NW periphery of this system,
p-type issues are not anticipated. A brief rate-driven changeover
to snow cannot be ruled out in northeast CO if heavy showers
persist over a given area Friday night and Saturday morning,
however, even if this were to occur, no accum or impact would be
anticipated due to the isolated nature thereof and temperatures
expected to remain above freezing. An isolated thunderstorm
cannot be ruled out (primarily in southwest KS), however,
deep convection is very unlikely. Expect a clearing trend late
Saturday into Saturday night as the upper low gradually progresses
E/ESE toward the lower MS river valley.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 123 PM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

In the extended (Sunday Night-Thursday)...Somewhat active pattern
will continue through the rest of the week as another in a series
of short wave troughs drives a cold front across the area on
Tuesday. Aside from the precip chances as this system passes,
other concern for the period will be wind speeds Monday and
Tuesday. Right now looks like we may see period of 15-25 mph winds
both ahead and behind front but unlike last few systems there
does not look to be much potential for any high wind events. Fire
weather threat will remain marginal as well in spite of the winds
as afternoon.

Overall given the minor expected impacts and rather large variance
in temperatures in the later part of the period, do not see a lot
in the way of targets of opportunity and think overall
blended/averaged forecast is the best way forward.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1040 AM MDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions will rule through the 18Z TAF period. Ceilings will
be limited to scattered cirrus (20,000-25,000 ft agl) this
afternoon through tonight. Mid-level ceilings (5,000-8,000 ft agl)
will quickly overspread the region after sunrise (12-15Z) Friday

Winds will become southeast at 20-25 knots at the GLD terminal
this afternoon, with gusts up to 35 knots possible by late afternoon
and evening. Breezy southeast winds will persist overnight into
Friday morning. Winds will be slower to strengthen at the MCK
today, increasing to 15-20 knots during the late afternoon
(21-00Z). Winds at MCK will remain breezy (15-25 knots) overnight
into Friday morning.

With both terminals situated in the warm sector of a strengthening
lee cyclone, an environment characterized by a tightening MSLP
gradient and breezy southeast winds at the surface, LLWS criteria
is very unlikely to be met.




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