Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
241 PM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

Today-tonight...southeast winds slowly increase through the day and
could approach breezy category along and west of the CO/KS border
ahead of the approaching upper trough and associated cold front.
850mb temperatures warm 6F in the east to 10-13F across the rest of
the area supporting highs in the mid 60s to 70 degrees. For this
evening latest trends are to slow the cold fronts arrival with the
strongest winds from Yuma to Flagler and points west by
midnight...gusts in the 30 mph range possible. From midnight through
sunrise Tuesday morning the front is expected to reach a line from
McCook to Colby and Tribune with gusty north winds. Regarding
precipitation chances, there remains a chance of showers and
isolated thunderstorms slowly moving southeast across the northwest
half of the area through midnight as an upper level disturbance
ahead of the main upper trough moves in from the west. Weak
instability and increasing upper jet divergence suggest at least an
isolated thunder mention. After midnight areal coverage of showers
expands across the remaining forecast area.  Low temperatures look
to range from the mid 30s west to low/possibly mid 40s east.

Tuesday-Tuesday chance for additional precipitation is
during the morning hours before decreasing from northwest to
southeast in the afternoon as the center of the upper trough moves
into central Nebraska with mid level dry slot moving into the
area from the northwest. Slim chances for additional moisture
during the night but wont fight the slight chance pops across the
east. Still looking for breezy to windy northwest winds during the
day and afternoon temperatures peaking in the mid 40s west to low
50s east. Am concerned that both NAM/GFS models both have
considerable cloudiness across the area for much of the day and
that the NAM cooler temperatures might verify better. If so,
adjustments will need to be made to both hourly temperatures and
possibly precipitation type. Winds slowly decrease during the
night with low temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 20s in
far eastern Colorado and low to mid 30s along and east of the
CO/KS border.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...will have some wraparound moisture in
the 850-700mb layer in the morning before slowly decreasing during
the afternoon eventually resulting in a sunny to mostly sunny sky.
Afternoon temperatures look to peak int he upper 50s to low 60s with
low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 PM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

H5 low pushes southeastward Tuesday night into Wednesday morning
with showers winding down from west to east. Lingering showers will
remain in the eastern portions of the area through mid morning.
Colder air will be ushered in from the north as we approach sunrise
on Wednesday, giving us cooler than average low temperatures across
the CWA.

Shortwave high pressure prevails from late Wednesday through Friday
with dry weather and warmer temperatures each day. H5 low pressure
approaches the region late Friday into Saturday as the ridge
retreats eastward. Surface flow turns southerly, allowing a long
fetch of moisture to advect into the region. CAPE values increase
significantly by midday Saturday using the GFS as guidance; however,
there is not much in the way of agreement between the global models
and thus confidence is low in this solution. If models come into
better agreement, I will have better confidence in the possibility
of thunderstorm development along a theta-e boundary Saturday
afternoon/evening. If this occurs, severe storms are possible,
especially along and west of HWY 25.

Confidence remains low going into Sunday, as the GFS develops
potentially severe thunderstorms along a theta-e/frontal boundary
Sunday afternoon. The ECMWF holds onto the ridge a bit longer, thus
inhibiting thunderstorm development.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1139 AM MDT Mon Apr 23 2018

For Kgld, vfr conditions are expected until later tonight. Until
00z southeast winds near 15 knots with gusts to near 23 knots are
expected. From 00z to 08z, southeast winds near 12 knots will
occur. Around 08z a cold front will begin to move through the
area and shift the winds to north near 12 knots. Precipitation
will be approaching the site. At 11z north winds of near 15 knots
with gusts to near 23 knots along with mvfr conditions will
prevail. From 15z to the end of the period, north winds around 24
knots with gusts to around 34 knots and ifr conditions are

For Kmck, through early this evening southeast winds near 10 knots
with gusts to around 18 knots will occur. From 03z to 06z
southeast winds will shift to the east at around 6 knots. From 08z
to 12z the winds will be light and variable in advance of a cold
front and precipitation will approach the site. At 12z the cold
front begins to move through with a shift to the northwest at 12
knots. At the same light rain and mvfr conditions are expected.
At 15z the northwest winds will increase to near 18 knots with
gusts to around 26 knots as mvfr conditions continue.




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