Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241912

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
112 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 232 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are mainly
ranging in the 60s under a partly cloudy skies as a veil of high
cloud moves thru the area. Winds are southerly as the region lies
between a lee-side trough over the Front Range and high pressure to
the east.

For the 3-day period into Saturday night...the entire region will
see above normal temperatures as main wx feature will be an H5/H7
ridge working over the central portion of the country...amplifying
going into the tail-end of the week/first half of the holiday

For today and tonight though...a shortwave will move over the
northern extent of the upper ridge later today in tandem with the
aforementioned lee-side trough. Ample instability over mainly
central/eastern portions of the CWA this afternoon/early evening
will trigger thunderstorms. Some of these storms could become severe
with large hail and damaging winds the main factors. The timing of
the trough into the CWA will lessen the western portions of the
CWA...but still a chance for trw there. Better chances central/east
as enhancement with shortwave moving into the Plains. SPC has mainly
central/eastern zones in a Slight Risk for severe...with the
remainder of the CWA under a Marginal Risk. Focus of pops for
potential thunder will be in the Slight Risk region where better
chances for convection are possible. High PW values also could bring
about locally heavy rainfall....thus flooding concerns. Expecting
any precip to taper off from west to east between 03z-08z Friday
with dry conditions ensuing right into Saturday night.

For temps...850 mb temps increase thru the first half of the weekend
as upper ridge becomes more amplified...shifts east of the CWA
allowing for SW flow to ensue. Looking for highs in the mid 80s to
lower 90s today...tempered only by convective cloud cover this
afternoon. Friday and Saturday...highs 90-95...warmest Saturday.
Overnight lows mid 50s to lower 60s tonight/Friday night...and lower
to mid 60s on Saturday night.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Thursday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

Southwest flow prevails at the start of the period, with an upper
low centered over eastern Nevada and western Utah. This low pushes
northeast into the northern Plains on Monday and Tuesday, before
traveling along the Canadian border towards the Great Lakes on
Wednesday and Thursday.

As this disturbance advances, a few waves pass over the region and
surface lee side troughing persists near the Colorado border through
midweek. With this set up, periodic showers and thunderstorms are
forecast Sunday night through Wednesday. There is a potential for
severe thunderstorms during this timeframe with decent moisture,
sufficient shear, and good instability in place. Will be able to
resolve details including location and timing closer to next week as
guidance improves.

Upper ridging begins to develop across the High Plains late
Wednesday into Thursday. Could still see some precipitation chances
on Thursday before the ridge amplifies on Friday.

Temperatures are expected to remain above normal, with highs in the
80s to low 90s and lows in the 50s to mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1120 AM MDT Thu May 24 2018

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. Northwest to
northeast winds expected through about 23z before becoming
variable as thunderstorms possibly impact the wind field. After
06z winds begin from the south under 10kts then slowly veer to the
west by 12z and north by 17z. Currently have VCTS in the 22z-00z
timeframe as a cold front initiates thunderstorm development. Its
possible that the terminal could be impacted with large hail and
damaging winds the primary threats during this time frame.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. A south wind
under 10kts at taf issuance will become variable as a cold front
moves in. After 06z winds begin from the southwest under 10kts
then slowly veer to the southwest and west by 14z. Currently have
thunderstorms out of the forecast but will need to watch the
02z-04z timeframe as a few models bring thunderstorms through the
terminal from the northwest.


Issued at 112 PM MDT Thu May 24 2018

With the area seeing at least 90F for high temperatures into
Saturday for many locations...the potential for record highs is

Here are the record high temperatures for Friday and Saturday:

                 Friday(5/25)    Saturday(5/26)

Goodland KS         97F/1964        97F/2012
McCook NE          100F/1964       102F/2012
Burlington CO       95F/1964        95F/2012
Hill City KS        99F/1964       102F/2012
Colby KS            98F/1967        98F/1967
Tribune KS          97F/1967       101F/1927
Yuma CO             96F/1967        96F/1942




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