Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 121730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Today/Tonight: A shortwave located invof Yellowstone at 09Z this
morning will track southeastward into the Central Plains this
aft/eve, along the northeastern periphery of an upper level ridge
over the Intermountain West. With the Central Plains situated
between an upper ridge to the west and an upper trough to the
east (the latter assoc/w an amplifying upper low digging southward
from Hudson Bay to the Great Lakes), dry conditions will prevail
across the Tri-State area, though a period of increased mid-level
cloud cover attendant the approaching shortwave is expected late this
aft/eve. Strengthening low-level warm advection /upslope flow/ in
far southwest KS and extreme southeast CO may result in the
development of low ceilings and light rain between roughly 03-09Z
Tue, though guidance continues to indicate that very light
precipitation (should it develop) should remain just S/SW of
Greeley/Wichita counties. Expect highs in the lower/mid 50s
coolest in the N/NW where mid-level cloud cover may mitigate
insolation during the late afternoon. Expect lows tonight
a few degrees warmer than this morning due to mid-level cloud
cover, in the low/mid 20s.

Tuesday/Tuesday night: Little change in the overall synoptic
pattern compared to today. Aside from weak low-level warm
advection in eastern CO (on the far western periphery of an H85
thermal ridge centered over the Central Plains), little if any
additional forcing will be present over the Tri-State area. Expect
dry conditions to persist with highs similar (albeit slightly
warmer N/NW) than today. S/SW low-level flow will strengthen over
eastern CO and western KS late Tue/Tue night as the H85 thermal
ridge shifts southward into TX. With a S/SW breeze, expect warmer
overnight lows in the mid/upper 20s.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: The upper level ridge over the
Intermountain West is progged to shift east of the Rockies
on Wed as an expansive upper level low progresses slowly eastward
ashore the Pacific coast. The upper ridge should make little if
any additional eastward progress across the Plains Wed night as as
an upper level low deepens downstream invof the Mid- Atlantic/
New England coast and an omega-block develops over North America.
Low-level southerly flow /warm advection/ will strengthen over the
Tri-State area Wed/Wed night as a lee cyclone deepens over
eastern CO in response to increasingly diffluent flow aloft over
the Rockies. With the above in mind, expect dry conditions and
much warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s
and lows Wed night in the upper 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 233 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

There will be an upper level ridge centered over the Central High
Plains to start the extended period. This will produce dry and warm
conditions for the region; expect Thursday afternoon highs to reach
the upper 70s. Due to proximity of the ridge axis there will not be
much wind potential; so despite low afternoon humidity do not expect
critical fire weather conditions.

Heading into the weekends this ridge will move eastward and flatten
as a large complex upper level low moves in behind it from the Great
Basin. This low system looks to aid in the development of multiple
surface low pressure system over the Central High Plains and this
will increase the chance of precipitation, including the possibility
of snow, over our warning area through Monday. Temperatures will
cool off a little bit as will, look for the 60s over the weekend
follow by the 50s on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1108 AM MDT Mon Mar 12 2018

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
high over eastern Kansas will result in light southerly surface
winds. High clouds will gradually increase through the period from
the west.




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