660
FXUS63 KGLD 100401
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1001 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
  this weekend, especially along and south of Interstate 70.
  Severe weather is not expected at this time.

- Severe weather potential may return by the middle of next
  week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 122 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Through most of the short-term, a 500 mb low pressure system
will be stalled out over the Great Basin. This will send out
some weak shortwaves across the Great Plains that will create
enough forcing to start some precipitation, but not enough for
anything organized or severe. Precipitation is possible this
evening and tomorrow evening, but PoPs remain around and under
25 and in the far western CWA. Kansas and Nebraska will likely
(70% confidence) not see any measurable precipitation in the
next 48 hours.

There is a slight chance (~15-20%) chance that patchy fog could
form across the CWA tonight, around 12Z. The limiting factors
will be northerly winds, currently forecast to be around 5-10
kts, and the potential for upper-level clouds.

Saturday afternoon and into the overnight hours look to be a
different story as the low pressure system starts moving to the
east. This will provide enough forcing for some more organized
precipitation, including a few thunderstorms. The threat for
severe weather is low, but not 0. CAPE looks to be limited to
around 1,000 J/KG and effective shear is about 15-20 kts or
less. This could lead to some pop-up storms that are quickly
lived.

A warming trend is expected through the period, with highs
reaching the mid to upper 70s on Saturday. Low temperatures will
follow a similar trend, but generally remain in the 40s
throughout the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 146 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

A continued active pattern continues to remain forecasted for
the Tri-State area for the extended period. 500mb troughing a
surface low looks to be across or within the vicinity of the
region. Rainfall chances currently are forecasted to be in the
in the 50-60% chance of occurring with the most likely time
frame to be during the afternoon hours. GFS forecast soundings
do show over 1100 j/kg of MUCAPE but with 0-6 shear less than 15
knots the severe threat doesn`t look promising other than
perhaps some isolated instances of hail. GFS forecast soundings
do also have the freezing level down around 10,000` as with PWAT
values of 0.8 to one inch makes me wonder if storms producing
large amounts of small hail (accumulating hail/SPLASH) may be in
play. With the weak wind shear as well severe
downbursts/perhaps wet microbursts may be in play as well as
soundings do show some dry air aloft which would help
entrainment with dissipating storms.

Monday; as the low departs some lingering showers and storms
may remain possible as moisture remains in place. The main focus
then turns to Tuesday. Mid level ridging looks to be in place
during the day but will quickly be followed by an advancing
shortwave. Am watching this day for the next potential severe
weather day for the area. PWATS do look to be above an inch with
falls into the 90th percentile climatology for the area. A
feature to keep an eye on will be a surface low across the Mid
Ohio Valley which will continue to feed moisture into the area
from the east. Currently, convection may grow more upscale the
further east it moves in the area. The additional moisture
advection from the east may lead into back building of the
potential MCS which would lead to a very heavy rain potential.
Continues to not look like a big hydrology event but some
instances of flash flooding may occur especially if any training
does occur.

Wednesday, a cold front pushes through the area bringing
showers and storms again to the area. Do have some concern of
lingering cloud cover from the previous day keeping temperatures
cooler and impacting any instability for thunderstorm
potential. Overall I did lower high temperatures a few degrees
to account for this scenario. The one thing to remember for the
potential events Tuesday and Wednesday is that they are still
5-6 days out and a lot will change in the coming days so
continue to stay tuned for the most up to date forecast.

Temperatures for the period will be dependent on coverage on
precipitation/clouds from the previous day so I did opt to lower
them some what especially the days where overnight rainfall
looks "more likely". Temperatures for the period are currently
forecast mainly in the upper 60s to mid 70s for highs with the
warmest day currently appearing to be Tuesday where some low 80s
are forecasted under the the mid level ridge in place. Lows
continue to remain forecasted near seasonal in the 40s to 50s.
May need to watch Thursday morning for cooler temperatures in
the upper 30s to low 40s in wake of the cold front on Wednesday,
but am not anticipating any frost/freeze concerns at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 950 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period, with ceilings
confined at or above ~6,000 ft AGL. Light (7-13 knot) NNW-N
winds will prevail through the day on Friday.. becoming variable
at/around sunset Friday evening.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent